{"id":1104,"date":"2018-07-25T13:51:00","date_gmt":"2018-07-25T05:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1104"},"modified":"2018-07-25T13:51:00","modified_gmt":"2018-07-25T05:51:00","slug":"%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e6%93%87%e6%99%82%ef%bc%8c%e8%a6%81%e8%b6%85%e9%81%8e%e9%80%99%e5%80%8b%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%97%e6%89%8d%e6%9c%83%e8%b4%8f%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1104","title":{"rendered":"\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\uff0c\u8981\u8d85\u904e\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u624d\u6703\u8d0f\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u5f88\u559c\u6b61\u627e\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8cb7\u8ce3\u9ede\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5f9e\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\uff08Market Timing\uff09\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u5728\u8ca1\u7d93\u7bc0\u76ee\u770b\u5230\u5c08\u5bb6\u9810\u6e2c\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u76ee\u4e0d\u8f49\u775b\u7684\u8a8d\u771f\u807d\u5176\u8aaa\u8a5e\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u5f9e\u5c08\u5bb6\u53e3\u4e2d\u807d\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6f5b\u529b\u80a1\u3001\u9ed1\u99ac\u80a1\u7b49\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5728\u9078\u64c7\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u8ca1\u9867\u554f\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6700\u559c\u6b61\u554f\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u61c9\u8a72\u8cb7\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u6216\u9019\u500b\u5546\u54c1\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6703\u6f32\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e9b\u64c7\u6642\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u592a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u591a\u5230\u4e0d\u52dd\u679a\u8209\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u8cfa\u5927\u9322\u55ce\uff1f\u5c31\u7b97\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u8981\u591a\u9ad8\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u771f\u7684\u7372\u5229\u55ce\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u5427\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u5be6\uff0c1990\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0d\u5a01\u5ec9\u2027\u590f\u666e\uff08William Sharpe\uff09\u65e9\u57281975\u5e74\u5c31\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587Likely Gains from Market Timing\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u63a2\u8a0e1929-1972\u5e74\u9593\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u5229\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u8207\u73fe\u91d1\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u8f49\u63db\uff0c\u8207\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u6709\u4f86\u505a\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6800\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u5fc5\u9808\u9054\u523074%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8d0f\u904e\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba<\/mark>\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5247\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7528\u8499\u5730\u5361\u7f85\u65b9\u6cd5\u9032\u884c10,000\u6b21\u6a21\u64ec\u5a01\u5ec9\u2027\u590f\u666e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u6642\u9593\u62c9\u9577\u81f31927-2010\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u767c\u73fe\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u534a\uff0850%\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u52dd\u904e\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u7e8c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff08\u5982\u5716\u4e00\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u6975\u5c11\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u8d0f\u904e\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u7e8c\u6301\u6709\u7684\uff08\u5982\u5716\u4e8c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/1-2-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/1-2-2.png 940w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/1-2-2-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/1-2-2-768x460.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatinginvestor.com\/2011\/02\/21\/market-timing\/\">The Calculating Investor<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/2-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1107\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/2-1-1.png 940w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/2-1-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/2-1-1-768x460.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatinginvestor.com\/2011\/02\/21\/market-timing\/\">The Calculating Investor<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u63a5\u8457\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u905470%\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u624d\u6703\u8d0f\u904e\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff08\u5982\u5716\u4e09\u3001\u5716\u56db\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-1.png 940w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-1-768x460.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatinginvestor.com\/2011\/02\/21\/market-timing\/\">The Calculating Investor<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4-1.png 940w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/4-1-768x460.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatinginvestor.com\/2011\/02\/21\/market-timing\/\">The Calculating Investor<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4f60\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u5728\u5341\u6b21\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\uff0c\u731c\u4e2d\u4e86\u4e03\u6b21\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8d0f\u904e\u4e00\u500b\u8cb7\u9032\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6301\u7e8c\u6301\u6709\u3001\u4ec0\u9ebc\u90fd\u4e0d\u505a\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u4f60\u9084\u60f3\u8981\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5fd9\u9032\u5fd9\u51fa\u55ce\uff1f<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6800\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u76f2\u76ee\u7684\u5fd9\u788c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u4f60\u6d6a\u8cbb\u8a31\u591a\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u983b\u7e41\u4ea4\u6613\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4fb5\u8755\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u767c\u73fe\u4e00\u5207\u53ea\u662f\u767d\u5fd9\u4e00\u5834\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u61c9\u8a72\u5b78\u5b78\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff0c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6800\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u964d\u4f4e\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9577\u671f\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u505a\u4e00\u500b\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba<\/mark><\/strong>\uff0c\u8b93\u8907\u5229\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u70ba\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u5275\u9020\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u80fd\u5920\u8f15\u9b06\u7d2f\u7a4d\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u7701\u4e0b\u66f4\u591a\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u597d\u597d\u4eab\u53d7\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6211\u5011\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u5f88\u559c\u6b61\u627e\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8cb7\u8ce3\u9ede\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5f9e\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\uff08Market Timi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,14],"tags":[91,187,496],"class_list":["post-1104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-10","category-14","tag-91","tag-187","tag-496"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1105"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}