{"id":1386,"date":"2020-03-02T15:54:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-02T07:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1386"},"modified":"2020-03-02T15:54:00","modified_gmt":"2020-03-02T07:54:00","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e5%8f%8d%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e3%80%8b%e4%bd%9c%e8%80%85%e5%a1%94%e9%9b%b7%e4%bc%af%e7%9a%8415%e5%8f%a5%e7%b6%93%e5%85%b8%e5%90%8d%e8%a8%80%ef%bc%9a%e7%84%a1%e8%ab%96%e6%88%91%e5%80%91%e7%9a%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1386","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\u768415\u53e5\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8a00\uff1a\u7121\u8ad6\u6211\u5011\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u591a\u9ebc\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u63a7\u5236\u640d\u5931\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u591a\u597d\uff0c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u7d42\u5c07\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u5207\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u4eba\u7269\u7c21\u4ecb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\" id=\"attachment_5334\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Taleb_mug-300x294.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5334\"\/><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb\">wikipedia<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d0d\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u5c3c\u53ef\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u7814\u7a76\u300c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300d\u3001\u300c\u6a5f\u7387\u300d\u3001\u300c\u4eba\u70ba\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u7b49\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u8457\u6709\u300a\u96a8\u6a5f\u9a19\u5c40\u300b\u3001\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9\u300b\u3001\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8a9e\u9304\u300b\u3001\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u9677\u9631\u300b\u7b49\u7d93\u5178\u66f8\u7c4d\uff0c\u5408\u7a31\u300c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e94\u90e8\u66f2\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u5f9e\u4e8b\u8a08\u91cf\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u57282006\u5e74\u8f49\u8077\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u8077\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u5bb6\u53ca\u54f2\u5b78\u96a8\u7b46\u4f5c\u5bb6\u3002 &nbsp; \u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4e16\u4e0a\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u517c\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u7a00\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53ca\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u5e36\u7d66\u4e16\u4eba\u8a31\u591a\u7368\u5230\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u63a1\u96a8\u7b46\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e36\u6709\u81ea\u50b3\u8272\u5f69\uff0c\u6587\u5b57\u98a8\u683c\u751f\u6d3b\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u805e\u540d\u65bc\u4e16\uff0c\u6b64\u66f8\u9577\u671f\u69ae\u767b\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u53ca\u5404\u5927\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u699c\uff0c\u66f4\u66fe\u88ab\u300a\u661f\u671f\u65e5\u6cf0\u6664\u58eb\u5831\u300b\u8a55\u9078\u70ba\u300c\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c12\u672c\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u66f8\u300d\u3002&nbsp;<strong>\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8a00<\/strong>&nbsp;1.\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u60f3\u6559\u5225\u4eba\u5b78\u6703\u67d0\u9805\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5c31\u6559\u4ed6\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u624d\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u5b78\u6821\u4e2d\u7121\u6cd5\u5b78\u5230\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u2014\u53cd\u8106\u5f31<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2.\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u559c\u6b61\u53bb\u5c0b\u627e\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u8981\u6a21\u4eff\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6bd4\u8f03\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u53bb\u627e\u51fa\u4f60\u4e0d\u60f3\u6a21\u4eff\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u52aa\u529b\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u8981\u6210\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">\u2014\u53cd\u8106\u5f31<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3.\u9762\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u8907\u5408\u7cfb\u7d71(complex system,\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7a2e)\u6642\uff0c\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u6cd5\u4ee4\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u9ede\u8ddf\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u76f4\u89ba\u60f3\u6cd5\u525b\u597d\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\uff0c\u8d8a\u7c21\u55ae\u6703\u8d8a\u597d,\u8907\u96dc\u53ea\u6703\u5f15\u8d77\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u5148\u9810\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u2026\u2026.\u4f46\u7c21\u55ae\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u53bb\u843d\u5be6\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa,\u4ed6\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u8907\u96dc\u624d\u80fd\u5920\u986f\u73fe\u51fa\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0a\u7684\u5c08\u696d\u8207\u50f9\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">\u2014\u53cd\u8106\u5f31<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4.\u6a5f\u7387\u4e26\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\u9ab0\u5b50\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u6a5f\u7387\u66f4\u662f\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u77e5\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u77e5\u9053\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5.\u7576\u4e8b\u60c5\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u50cf\u4e00\u6a23\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u62d2\u7d55\u627f\u8a8d\u6703\u6709\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>6.\u7121\u8ad6\u6211\u5011\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u591a\u9ebc\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u63a7\u5236\u640d\u5931\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u591a\u597d\uff0c\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u7d42\u5c07\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u5207\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7.\u770b\u6f32\u6216\u770b\u8dcc\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6c92\u8655\u7406\u904e\u98a8\u96aa\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u5982\u96fb\u8996\u4e0a\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u8a55\u8ad6\u54e1\u3002\u5509\uff01\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u4e0d\u662f\u652f\u4ed8\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u652f\u4ed8\u91d1\u9322\u51fa\u53bb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64,\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8003\u616e\u7684\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u6642\u6240\u5c07\u6703\u4ed8\u51fa\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>8.\u6295\u8cc7\u5728\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u5e02\u5834\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u9435\u8ecc\u4e0a\u6253\u76f9\u4e00\u6a23\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>9.\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u554f\u984c\u4e0d\u662f\u5b83\u6703\u8f49\u79fb\u4f60\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u6beb\u7121\u7528\u8655,\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10.\u6211\u5f37\u70c8\u504f\u8892\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u70ba\u897f\u6d0b\u68cb\u6559\u7df4\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u9762\u8a66\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5e6b\u52a9\uff0c\u7576MBA\u7533\u8acb\u4ea4\u6613\u8077\u4f4d\u6642,\u4ed6\u5011\u7d93\u5e38\u5728\u7c21\u6b77\u4e0a\u8a87\u8000\u201d\u9ad8\u7d1a\u201d\u7684\u570b\u969b\u8c61\u68cb\u6280\u80fd\u3002\u6211\u8a18\u5f97\u6c83\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u7684MBA\u8077\u696d\u9867\u554f\u66fe\u63a8\u85a6\u6211\u5011\u7528\u897f\u6d0b\u68cb\u6280\u80fd\u4f5c\u70ba\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u301d\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u8070\u660e\u800c\u4e14\u5f88\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u201d\u3002MBA\u901a\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u77e5\u8b58\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u201d\u5c08\u696d\u77e5\u8b58\u201d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u66fe\u7d93\u901a\u904e\u5f9e\u62bd\u5c5c\u91cc\u62ff\u51fa\u4e00\u76e4\u68cb\u5b50\uff0c\u4f86\u9a57\u8b49\u897f\u6d0b\u68cb\u5c08\u696d\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u7533\u8acb\u4eba\u6027\u683c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u4e26\u544a\u8a34\u73fe\u5728\u81c9\u8272\u84bc\u767d\u7684\u5b78\u751f\uff1a\u300c\u5c24\u91cc\u6703\u8ddf\u4f60\u8aaa\u53e5\u8a71\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11.\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u5c07\u4e8b\u7269\u8996\u70ba\u5f7c\u6b64\u7368\u7acb\u3002\u7576\u67e5\u770b\u5169\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u548cB\u6642,\u5f88\u96e3\u4e0d\u5047\u5b9a A\u5c0e\u81f4B\u3001B\u5c0e\u81f4A\u6216\u5169\u8005\u4e92\u76f8\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6211\u5011\u7684\u504f\u898b\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u5efa\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>12.\u4eba\u5011\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4f4e\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u72af\u932f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13.\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u8a8d\u70ba\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e5f\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u5fc3\u8df3\u6216\u982d\u9aee\u7684\u751f\u9577\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u5929\u771f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>14.\u5982\u679c\u628a\u7121\u9650\u6578\u91cf\u7684\u7334\u5b50\u653e\u5728\u6253\u5b57\u6a5f\u524d\u9762,\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u81ea\u7531\u6253\u5b57\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u96bb\u7334\u5b50\u6703\u6253\u51fa\u300a\u4f0a\u8389\u4e9e\u5fb7\u300b\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u7248\u672c\u3002\u6839\u64da\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf\u6700\u521d\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u90a3\u9ebc\u6709\u8da3\uff1a\u9019\u7a2e\u6a5f\u7387\u4f4e\u5f97\u96e2\u8b5c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u7334\u5b50\u4e2d\u767c\u73fe\u4e86\u90a3\u500b\u82f1\u96c4\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6709\u8b80\u8005\u6703\u628a\u4ed6\u4e00\u751f\u7684\u7a4d\u84c4\u7528\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u7334\u5b50\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6703\u5beb\u51fa\u300a\u5967\u5fb7\u8cfd\u300b\u4e0a\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>15.\u4fd7\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u58de\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u96e2\u5a5a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u653e\u68c4\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u90e8\u4f4d\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3001\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c0d\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u5fe0\u8aa0\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u96a8\u6a5f\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u50bb\u74dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u7269\u7c21\u4ecb \u7d0d\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u5c3c\u53ef\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u7814\u7a76\u300c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300d\u3001\u300c\u6a5f\u7387 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":1387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[163],"class_list":["post-1386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-17","tag-163"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}