{"id":1398,"date":"2020-04-10T16:04:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-10T08:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1398"},"modified":"2020-04-10T16:04:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-10T08:04:00","slug":"%e5%8f%b2%e8%92%82%e5%a4%ab%e8%88%87%e6%88%b4%e5%a4%ab%e9%83%bd%e6%9c%89%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%95%8f%e9%a1%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1398","title":{"rendered":"\u53f2\u8482\u592b\u8207\u6234\u592b\u90fd\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u554f\u984c!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

2020\u5e743\u6708\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6642\u9ede\uff0c\u53d7\u5230COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u96b1\u6182\uff0cOPEC+\u806f\u76df\u74e6\u89e3\u9020\u6210\u6cb9\u50f9\u5d29\u8dcc\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u555f\u52d53\u6b21\u7194\u65b7\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u4e143\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u9707\u76ea\u5e45\u5ea6\u66f4\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\uff0c \u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5de8\u5e45\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c\u5148\u4e0d\u8ad6\u6bcf\u5929\u947d\u7814\u8ca1\u91d1\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7684\u53f2\u8482\u592b\u8207\u7cbe\u7814\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u70ba60\u7d1a\u5deb\u5e2b\u7684\u6234\u592b\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u53bb\u7761\u516c\u5712\uff0c\u60f3\u5fc5\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5fc3\u88e1\u975e\u5e38\u96e3\u53d7!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6295\u8cc7\u8667\u640d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9019\u9ebc\u75db\u82e6?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8ca1\u91d1\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u9818\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u500b\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\u53eb\u4f5c\u300c\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa(Efficient Market theory)<\/mark><\/strong>\u300d\uff0c\u8a72\u5047\u8aaa\u8aaa\u660e\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u6301\u7e8c\u64ca\u6557\u5e02\u5834\u800c\u8cfa\u5f97\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u500b\u5047\u8aaa\u80cc\u5f8c\u6709\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u300e\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7686\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684!\u300f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u500b\u5047\u8aaa\u662f\u7531\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3bEugene Fama (\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u99ac)\u65bc1970\u5e74\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u60f3\u5fc5\u5927\u5bb6\u4e00\u5b9a\u5145\u6eff\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5fc3\u60c5\u5c31\u50cf\u5750\u96f2\u9704\u98db\u8eca\u4e00\u6a23\u4e03\u4e0a\u516b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u54ea\u4f86\u5f97\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e\u548c\u975e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8b70\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b78\u8853\u754c\uff0c\u76f4\u52302000\u5e74\u6642\u624d\u88ab\u8cea\u7591\u6709\u554f\u984c!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Kahneman(\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\u00b7\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc)\u8207Amos Tversky(\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u00b7\u7279\u4f5b\u65af\u57fa)\u00a0\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u8ca1\u52d9\u5b78<\/mark><\/strong>\u300d\u7684\u59cb\u7956\uff0c\u7686\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u62a8\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4e3b\u5f35\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae: \u4eba\u4e26\u4e0d\u50cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u5047\u8a2d\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u884c\u70ba\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5076\u4e00\u70ba\u4e4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u884c\u70ba\u8ca1\u52d9\u5b78\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\u898f\u907f\u640d\u5931\u7684\u504f\u8aa4(Loss Aversion)<\/mark><\/strong>\uff0c\u767d\u8a71\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\u640d\u5931\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u50b7\u75db\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u7372\u5229\u6240\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5feb\u6a02\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u9047\u5230\u4ee5\u4e0b\u60c5\u6cc1:\u7372\u5229\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u8d95\u5feb\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u8667\u640d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u907f\u800c\u4e0d\u898b\u3002\u800c\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6301\u6709\u8667\u640d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9060\u6bd4\u6301\u6709\u7372\u5229\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9577\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u9019\u5927\u591a\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u4eba\u5011\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u300c\u5272\u8089\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5be7\u9858\u300c\u5957\u7262\u300d\u3002\u4ed4\u7d30\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u6709\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u7d93\u6b77\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u300c\u5272\u8089\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u5be7\u9858\u300c\u5957\u7262\u300d?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5176\u4e2d\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc\u8207\u7279\u4f5b\u65af\u57fa\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u300c\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6(Prospect Theory)<\/strong>\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe\u640d\u5931\u6240\u5e36\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u9060\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u7372\u5229\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5feb\u6a02\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u900f\u904e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u5169\u5834\u8ced\u5c40\uff0c\u6aa2\u8996\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u6709\u898f\u907f\u640d\u5931\u7684\u554f\u984c!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8ced\u5c40A:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. \u78ba\u5b9a\u7372\u5f97\u4e00\u842c\u5143\u3002<\/li>
  2. \u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u5169\u842c\u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u96f6\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u8ced\u5c40B:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. \u78ba\u5b9a\u640d\u5931\u4e00\u842c\u5143\u3002<\/li>
    2. \u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u640d\u5931\u5169\u842c\uff0c\u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u640d\u5931\u96f6\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u8ced\u5c40A\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u9805\uff0c\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u767e\u843d\u888b\u70ba\u5b89\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8ced\u5c40B\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u9078\u9805\uff0c\u5be7\u9858\u5617\u8a66\u8ced\u4e00\u628a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u78ba\u5b9a\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u4eba\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u5fc5\u5b9a\u8ce0\u9322\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5192\u96aa\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5eb7\u7d0d\u66fc\u8207\u7279\u4f5b\u65af\u57fa\u4e0b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5931\u53bb\u4e00\u584a\u9322\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u584a\u9322\u5feb\u6a02\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5169\u500d!<\/mark><\/strong>\u4eba\u5011\u986f\u8457\u6709\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u640d\u5931\u8da8\u907f\u5fc3\u614b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u640d\u5931\u898f\u907f\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5728\u6fc0\u52f5\u4eba\u5011\u6642\u61f2\u7f70\u5236\u5ea6\u5c07\u6bd4\u734e\u52f5\u5236\u5ea6\u66f4\u6709\u6548!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u9000\u5f79\u7db2\u7403\u50b3\u5947Andre Agassi(\u5b89\u5fb7\u70c8\u00b7\u963f\u683c\u897f)\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u81ea\u50b3\u63d0\u5230\u300c\u8d0f\u7403\u7684\u7f8e\u597d\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u4e0d\u50cf\u8f38\u7403\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u611f\u89ba\u90a3\u9ebc\u5f37\u70c8\u3002\u800c\u8d0f\u7403\u7684\u751c\u7f8e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5411\u8f38\u7403\u7684\u82e6\u6f80\u90a3\u9ebc\u6301\u4e45\uff0c\u5dee\u5730\u9060\u4e86<\/mark>\u3002<\/strong>\u300d\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u75db\u82e6\u6240\u70d9\u5370\u4e0b\u7684\u75a4\u75d5\u6bd4\u679c\u5be6\u907a\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u751c\u7f8e\u66f4\u52a0\u4e45\u9060\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u898f\u907f\u640d\u5931?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
      • \u7576\u4f60\u8d8a\u983b\u7e41\u95dc\u6ce8\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u8667\u640d\u611f\u5230\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u5bcc\u9054\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u505a\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u7e3e\u6548\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u9577\u671f\u6c92\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5e33\u6236\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c11\u505a\u932f\u6bd4\u591a\u505a\u4f86\u7684\u91cd\u8981!<\/mark><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
        • \u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f32\u8dcc\u662f\u5e38\u614b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6709\u6ce2\u52d5\u624d\u6709\u9ad8\u5831\u916c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u82e5\u6211\u5011\u505a\u597d\u5168\u7403\u5206\u6563\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u9707\u76ea\uff0c\u718a\u5e02\u7d42\u5c07\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u7e3e\u6548\u8667\u640d\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9808\u6ce8\u91cd\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u76ee\u6a19<\/mark>\u3002<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          2020\u5e743\u6708\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6642\u9ede\uff0c\u53d7\u5230COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u96b1\u6182\uff0cOPEC […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,10,14],"tags":[184,254,407,431,433,471],"class_list":["post-1398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-28","category-10","category-14","tag-184","tag-254","tag-407","tag-431","tag-433","tag-471"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}