{"id":141,"date":"2017-06-09T11:28:00","date_gmt":"2017-06-09T03:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=141"},"modified":"2026-06-05T11:43:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T03:43:41","slug":"%e5%bb%ba%e7%ab%8b%e5%8f%8d%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%b5%84%e5%90%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=141","title":{"rendered":"\u5efa\u7acb\u201d\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/serena4753.blogspot.tw\/2013\/10\/antifragile.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>\u53cd\u8106\u5f31<\/strong><\/a>\u201d&nbsp;\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4f5c\u8005 Nassim Taleb \u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230,\u904e\u53bb\u4ed6\u5728\u7576\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7684\u6642\u5019,\u516c\u53f8\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u6703\u8209\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u6703\u8b70,\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\u6bcf\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u90fd\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565,\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4ed6\u5c0d\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f:\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u8f03\u9ad8,\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565:\u505a\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834(\u8cb7\u9032\u8ce3\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a),\u9019\u6642\u6574\u500b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u90fd\u89ba\u5f97\u4ed6\u82e5\u4e0d\u662f\u6628\u665a\u559d\u9189\u4e86\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u90fd\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u6e05\u9192,\u4e0d\u7136\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u6545\u610f\u6417\u86cb,\u4f46Nassim Taleb\u8aaa\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u9664\u4e86\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u4ee5\u5916\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u6e05\u9192,\u4ed6\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u662f,\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u7fd2\u6163\u65bc\u53ea\u601d\u8003\u4e0a\u6f32\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u6a5f\u7387<\/mark><\/strong>,\u5176\u5be6\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u500b,\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e0a\u6f32\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u5e45\u5ea6<\/mark><\/strong>,\u4f8b\u5982\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u905480%,\u4f46\u6f32\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u67095%,\u800c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u53ea\u670920%,\u4f46\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u662f25%,\u4ed6\u8981\u4fdd\u8b77(\u6216\u907f\u514d)\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc,\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u9078\u64c7\u653e\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834,\u4ed6\u8aaa\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5c31\u662f:<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u201c<strong>\u964d\u4f4e\u4f60\u7684\u4e0b\u6a94\u640d\u5931\u98a8\u96aa,\u4fdd\u8b77\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u53d7\u6975\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3,\u4e26\u4e14\u8b93\u4e0a\u6a94\u5229\u76ca\u7167\u9867\u81ea\u5df1<\/strong>\u201c<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u5f88\u50cf\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1,\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u554f\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u9ad8\u9084\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u9ad8?\u6211\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8(\u539f\u56e0\u770b<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/serena4753.blogspot.tw\/2013\/11\/blog-post.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>\u9019\u88e1<\/strong><\/a>\u548c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/serena4753.blogspot.tw\/2013\/11\/dr-yardeni.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>\u9019\u88e1<\/strong><\/a>),\u4f46\u662f\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u7d93\u5f88\u6709\u9650\u4e86,\u56e0\u70ba\u7562\u7adf\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0a\u6f32\u56db\u5e74\u591a\u5feb\u6eff\u4e94\u5e74\u4e86,\u800c\u4e14\u8ab0\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u60c5,\u66f4\u4e0d\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u767c\u751f\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc,\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u65e6\u771f\u7684\u767c\u751f,\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u5f88\u5927,\u56e0\u70ba\u7562\u7adf\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u8655\u5728\u9ad8\u50f9\u4f4d\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f4e\u50f9\u4f4d,\u6240\u4ee5\u5373\u4f7f\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u7136\u770b\u597d,\u4f46\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u96a8\u6642\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u500b<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u201c\u4fdd\u96aa\u201d<\/mark><\/strong>\u63aa\u65bd,\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u53bb\u653e\u7a7a\u80a1\u5e02,\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4e2d\u73fe\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387,\u9019\u6a23\u540c\u6a23\u80fd\u5920\u9054\u5230\u4fdd\u96aa\u7684\u6548\u679c,\u964d\u4f4e\u842c\u4e00\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7684\u885d\u64ca,<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010451019\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>\u5927\u8166\u7149\u91d1\u8853<\/strong><\/a>\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u662f\u77e5\u540d\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u6b04\u4f5c\u5bb6<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/moneybeat\/2013\/11\/08\/a-few-good-reasons-to-hoard-some-cash-now\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Jason Zweig<\/strong><\/a>\u5728\u5176\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5c08\u6b04\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5efa\u8b70\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba,\u73fe\u5728\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u8003\u616e<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u63d0\u9ad8\u73fe\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387<\/mark><\/strong>,\u540c\u6642\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8209\u51fa\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u4eba,\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u7b56\u7565\u90fd\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u73fe\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387,\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u58de\u80a1\u5e02\u55ce?\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f,\u800c\u662f\u5728\u770b\u597d\u80a1\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u5c45\u9ad8\u601d\u5371\u4e86,\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u8b39\u614e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5,\u4e0d\u662f\u55ce?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-text-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" 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\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230,\u904e\u53bb\u4ed6\u5728\u7576\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7684\u6642\u5019,\u516c\u53f8\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u6703 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-33"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=141"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16296,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141\/revisions\/16296"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}