{"id":14995,"date":"2026-04-01T17:46:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T09:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=14995"},"modified":"2026-05-22T17:32:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T09:32:11","slug":"%e8%b4%8f%e5%ae%b6%e7%9a%84%e5%85%a5%e5%a0%b4%e8%b2%bb%ef%bc%9a%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc%e6%9c%80%e5%bc%b7%e7%9a%84%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%ef%bc%8c%e7%9c%8b%e8%b5%b7%e4%be%86%e6%9c%80%e5%83%8f%e5%80%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=14995","title":{"rendered":"\u8d0f\u5bb6\u7684\u5165\u5834\u8cbb\uff1a\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u6700\u50cf\u500b\u932f\u8aa4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u60f3\u50cf\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u5411\u4f60\u63a8\u92b7\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u9019\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u4e0d\u50c5\u6709\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u7684\u80cc\u66f8\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u9577\u9054 126 \u5e74\u7684\u6578\u64da\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5b83\u6bcf\u5e74\u80fd\u70ba\u4f60\u5e36\u4f86\u5e73\u5747 <strong>7.7% \u7684\u984d\u5916\u6ea2\u916c<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\uff08Momentum\uff09\u300d\u2014\u2014\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8cb7\u5165\u6700\u8fd1\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u5728\u300aUBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026\u300b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u683c\u4e2d\uff0c\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\u662f\u6b77\u53f2\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u5f37\u3001\u6700\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u51a0\u8ecd \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u7a69\u8d0f\u7684\u6bd4\u8cfd\uff0c\u5c0d\u5427\uff1f\u4f46\u554f\u984c\u4f86\u4e86\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u6578\u64da\u5982\u6b64\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e0d\u662f\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u6210\u4e86\u5bcc\u7fc1\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5957\u300c\u51a0\u8ecd\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u6536\u53d6\u7684\u5165\u5834\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u8cbb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u7126\u616e\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6578\u64da\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u6b98\u9177\u771f\u76f8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u7684 Figure 94\uff0c\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\u78ba\u5be6\u662f\u500b\u738b\u8005\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb 24 \u500b\u300c\u570b\u5bb6-\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u5340\u9593\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u6709 13 \u6b21\u596a\u51a0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"816\" height=\"511\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4.png 816w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-4-768x481.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 816px) 100vw, 816px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u4efd\u8f1d\u714c\u80cc\u5f8c\u96b1\u85cf\u8457\u4e00\u500b\u4ee4\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff1a<strong>\u5728\u7d04 22% \u7684\u6642\u9593\u88e1\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u5b50\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u662f\u8ca0\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e00\u8667\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u6574\u5e74\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u4e00\u6574\u65ec\uff08\u5341\u5e74\uff09<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u6700\u96e3\u71ac\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u50cf\u4f60\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u300c\u6211\u5011\u8981\u57f7\u884c\u4e00\u5957\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u52d5\u80fd\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u958b\u59cb\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u8868\u73fe\u5e73\u5e73\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u8f38\u7d66\u4e86\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5230\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e94\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u9694\u58c1\u90a3\u500b\u53ea\u6703\u8cb7\u5783\u573e\u80a1\u7684\u9130\u5c45\u8cfa\u5f97\u6bd4\u4f60\u9084\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5230\u9019\u908a\u4f60\u6703\u89ba\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u767d\u7661\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6578\u64da\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u7b56\u7565\u4f9d\u7136\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5e33\u6236\u537b\u5728\u5c16\u53eb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5831\u916c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u5229\u6f64\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u300c\u88dc\u511f\u300d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Morgan Housel \u8aaa\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u628a\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u300c\u5e33\u55ae\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u6bcf\u5e74 7.7% \u7684\u6ea2\u916c\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9b54\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u8981\u6c42\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u652f\u4ed8\u4e00\u4efd\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\uff1a<strong>\u5fcd\u53d7\u5e73\u5eb8\u7684\u52c7\u6c23<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5831\u544a\u5217\u51fa\u7684\u5404\u500b\u5341\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u770b\u5230\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\u6709\u6642\u8868\u73fe\u9a5a\u4eba\uff08\u5982 1920 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684 20.6% \u6216 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684 16.4%\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u50cf 1930 \u5e74\u4ee3\u90a3\u7a2e\u63a5\u8fd1\u65bc\u96f6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u503c\u7684\u6158\u6de1\u6642\u523b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u6574\u6574\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593\u88e1\u8b93\u4f60\u986f\u5f97\u50cf\u500b\u7b28\u86cb\u6642\uff0c\u7d55\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u653e\u68c4\u3002\u800c\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9019\u4efd\u6ea2\u916c\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8d0f\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u5c31\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u592a\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u6548\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56e0\u5b50\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6210\u672c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7e3d\u662f\u5c0b\u6c42\u900f\u904e\u300c\u98a8\u683c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\u4f86\u589e\u5f37\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u7d66\u51fa\u7684\u6559\u8a13\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6c92\u6709\u6c38\u9060\u7684\u8d0f\u5bb6<\/strong>\uff1a\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u52d5\u80fd\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u4f60\u9023\u7e8c\u5341\u5e74\u61f7\u7591\u4eba\u751f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6ea2\u916c\u662f\u5c0d\u8010\u5fc3\u7684\u734e\u52f5<\/strong>\uff1a\u90a3\u4e9b 7.7% \u7684\u984d\u5916\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u4ed8\u7d66\u90a3\u4e9b\u300c\u5728\u5225\u4eba\u9003\u8dd1\u6642\u4f9d\u7136\u7559\u5728\u5834\u5167\u300d\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u88dc\u511f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5931\u6557\u662f\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u56e0\u5b50\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u6703\u5076\u723e\u8b93\u4eba\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4e0d\u5177\u5099\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u4e5f\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7d50\u8a9e<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300aUBS 2026 \u5e74\u5831\u300b\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u6578\u64da\u96c6\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u95dc\u65bc\u300c\u907a\u61be\u7ba1\u7406\u300d\u7684\u624b\u518a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b83\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u4f60\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7576\u4f60\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u9677\u5165\u90a3 22% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5750\u5f97\u4f4f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u6700\u96e3\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u662f\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u300c\u9762\u5b50\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u88e1\uff0c\u6700\u8cb4\u7684\u6771\u897f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u514d\u8cbb\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u6700\u75db\u82e6\u3001\u6700\u5bc2\u5bde\u7684\u5805\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u4f60\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u56e0\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7d44\u5408\u8dd1\u8f38\u5927\u76e4\u800c\u611f\u5230\u7f9e\u6127\u6642\uff0c\u8acb\u8a18\u5f97\uff1a\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u662f\u4f60\u901a\u5f80\u90a3 7.7% \u8d85\u984d\u56de\u5831\u6240\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u3001\u90a3\u5f35\u6602\u8cb4\u7684\u9580\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-text-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#000000;background-color:#ffffff\">\n<style>\n\/* --- \u9810\u8a2d\uff1a\u624b\u6a5f\u7248\u5c3a\u5bf8 (\u5c0f\u87a2\u5e55) --- *\/\n.rwd-heading {\n    font-size: 32px !important;\n    margin-bottom: 24px !important;\n}\n.rwd-btn-wrapper {\n    \/* \u624b\u6a5f\u7248\u6a19\u984c\uff1a32px * 10\u5b57 = 320px *\/\n    width: 320px !important;\n    max-width: 100% !important;\n}\n.rwd-btn-link {\n    font-size: 16px !important;\n    padding: 12px 16px !important;\n}\n\n\/* --- \u5e73\u677f\u7248\u5c3a\u5bf8 (\u87a2\u5e55\u5bec\u5ea6\u5927\u65bc 768px) --- *\/\n@media (min-width: 768px) {\n    .rwd-heading {\n        font-size: 48px !important;\n        margin-bottom: 32px !important;\n    }\n    .rwd-btn-wrapper {\n        \/* \u5e73\u677f\u7248\u6a19\u984c\uff1a48px * 10\u5b57 = 480px *\/\n        width: 480px !important;\n    }\n    .rwd-btn-link {\n        font-size: 18px !important;\n        padding: 14px 20px !important;\n 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