{"id":171,"date":"2017-06-09T14:03:00","date_gmt":"2017-06-09T06:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=171"},"modified":"2017-06-09T14:03:00","modified_gmt":"2017-06-09T06:03:00","slug":"%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e7%89%b9%e9%bb%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=171","title":{"rendered":"\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u7684\u7279\u9ede"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201c\u5224\u65b7\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u5439\u7834\u4e4b\u524d\u592a\u65e9\u5c31\u8ce3\u6389\u6301\u80a1 \u2014 \u4f60\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5f88\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u5439\u7834\u4e4b\u5f8c\u624d\u8ce3\u6389\u6301\u80a1 \u2014 \u4f60\u540c\u6a23\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u662f\u5f88\u611a\u8822\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Doug Kass (\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u7d93\u5206\u6790\u5e2b)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab \u5316\u7684\u7279\u9ede<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388 Robert Shiller \u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u7684\u5f97\u4e3b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u5ee3\u53d7\u8ca1\u7d93\u754c\u7a31\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u5c31\u9ede\u51fa\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u4e26\u4e14\u8b66\u544a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u65bc\u6700\u8fd1\u570b\u5167\u5916\u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u5a92\u9ad4\u5f88\u591a\u90fd\u63d0\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02 \u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab \u7684\u8a71\u984c\uff0c\u7d1b\u7d1b\u8b66\u544a\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u591a\u982d\u8d70\u52e2\u8981\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4ee5\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4f86\u7d50\u675f\u9019\u6ce2\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u4f86\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e0b\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u9054\u5230\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\u4e86\u55ce? \u9019\u500b\u6ce1\u6cab\u5feb\u8981\u5439\u7834\u4e86\u55ce? Robert Shiller \u6559\u6388\u5728\u5176\u8457\u540d\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u7e41\u69ae (Irrational Exuberance) \u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u6709\u4e0b\u5217\u5e7e\u9805\u7279\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u77ed\u671f\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e (\u6216\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba) \u5c0d\u65bc\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u611f\u5230\u8208\u596e\u6216\u72c2\u71b1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u4f34\u96a8\u8457\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u63a8\u85a6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e (\u6216\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba) \u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u5165\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u8208\u8da3\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6301\u7e8c\u6295\u5165\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7576\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u201c\u65b0\u6642\u4ee3\u201d \u6216 \u201c\u9019\u6b21\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u201d \u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u5145\u65a5\u5e02\u5834\u4e14\u6210\u70ba\u8cc7\u7522\u9ad8\u50f9\u4f4d\u7684\u652f\u6490\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. \u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u91d1\u6c3e\u6feb\uff0c\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u653e\u8cb8\u689d\u4ef6\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab \u5316\u5373\u5c07\u4f86\u81e8?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5e7e\u9ede\u662f Robert Shiller \u6559\u6388\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u754c\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6709 \u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab \u5316\u7684\u5e7e\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u9019\u4e9b\u6a19\u6e96\u6210\u529f\u7684\u9810\u8a00\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b 2000 \u5e74\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u8207 2008 \u5e74\u7684\u623f\u5730\u7522\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u7528\u9019\u516d\u500b\u6e96\u5247\u4f86\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u77ed\u671f\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347<\/mark> \u2014 (\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5f9e 2009 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\uff0c\u5f9e (\u5716\u4e00) \u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u5728 2013 \u5e74\u90a3\u6642\u5df2\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u8aaa\u662f\u5426\u6709 \u7d93\u6fdf\u6ce1\u6cab \u5316\u7684\u73fe\u8c61? \u4f46\u8207 2000 \u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5f9e 2012 \u5e74\u81f3 2013 \u5e74\u904e\u53bb\u6b64\u4e00\u5e74\u7576\u4e2d 30% \u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u9084\u7b97\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u5e73\u7a69\u4e14\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u96e2\u8b5c\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u7531 (\u5716\u4e8c) \u4e2d\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74 (2016\/08~2017\/08) \u6642\u9593\u4e2d\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b\u80a1\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6210\u9577\u7d04 25% \u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
(\u5716\u4e8c) \u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b\u6307\u6578\u8fd1\u5e74\u4e4b\u72c0\u6cc1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. \u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e (\u6216\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba) \u5c0d\u65bc\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u611f\u5230\u8208\u596e\u6216\u72c2\u71b1<\/mark> \u2014 (\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u6709\u611f\u5230\u8208\u596e\u55ce? \u60f3\u60f3\u770b\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u6216\u5468\u906d\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\u6709\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5462? \u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u5427\uff01\u7531\u65bc 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\u592a\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u65bc\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\u5c0d\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684 \u201c\u8a8d\u77e5\u201d \u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684 (\u5716\u4e09)\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u6709\u8208\u596e\u6216\u72c2\u71b1\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
(\u5716\u4e09) 2008\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5be6\u969b\u72c0\u6cc1 V.S \u6c11\u773e\u9810\u671f\u72c0\u6cc1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3. \u4f34\u96a8\u8457\u591a\u6578\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u63a8\u85a6<\/mark> \u2014 (\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u78ba\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8ca1\u7d93\u5a92\u9ad4\u770b\u597d\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u9762\u5012\u7684\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u591a\u982d\u8d70\u52e2\u5373\u5c07\u7d50\u675f\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u6bd4\u8f03\u591a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53ea\u80fd\u8aaa\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4. \u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e (\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba) \u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u5165\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u8208\u8da3\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6301\u7e8c\u6295\u5165\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u7576\u4e2d<\/mark> \u2014 (\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u88e1\u6307\u7684\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u591a\u7684\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u6bd4\u8f03\u660e\u986f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c31\u662f\u6295\u5165\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u4ee5\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u6a5f\u69cb\u6cd5\u4eba\u8207\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\u5927\u591a\u9078\u64c7\u89c0\u671b\u6216\u9000\u5834\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u760b\u72c2\u6295\u5165\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u201c\u65b0\u6642\u4ee3\u201d \u6216 \u201c\u9019\u6b21\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u201d \u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u5145\u65a5\u5e02\u5834\u4e14\u6210\u70ba\u8cc7\u7522\u9ad8\u50f9\u4f4d\u7684\u652f\u6490\u7406\u7531<\/mark> \u2014 (\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u6b21\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c\u539f\u56e0\u4e3b\u8981\u5c31\u662f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684 QE \u653f\u7b56\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. \u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u91d1\u6c3e\u6feb\uff0c\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u653e\u8cb8\u689d\u4ef6\u964d\u4f4e<\/mark> \u2014 (\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u7acb)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u96d6\u7136\u4e4b\u524d\u7f8e\u570b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u7d93\u4f4e\u5230\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u4f4e\u4e86\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u4e5f\u5f88\u5145\u6c9b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u6162\u6162\u6709\u5728\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u7531\u65bc 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u9280\u884c\u90fd\u53d7\u50b7\u6158\u91cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u904e\u53bb\u9019\u5e7e\u5e74\u5927\u90fd\u63a1\u53d6\u964d\u4f4e\u69d3\u687f (de-leverage) \u7684\u7dca\u7e2e\u653e\u8cb8\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653e\u5bec\u653e\u8cb8\u689d\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5e7e\u9ede\u4f86\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u53ea\u80fd\u8aaa \u201c\u4e0d\u4fbf\u5b9c\u201d \u4e86\uff01\u4f46\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u7e41\u69ae\u6216\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u6389\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u5462?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u5224\u65b7\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u5439\u7834\u4e4b\u524d\u592a\u65e9\u5c31\u8ce3\u6389\u6301\u80a1 \u2014 \u4f60\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5f88\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-33"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}