{"id":1813,"date":"2022-02-22T10:26:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-22T02:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1813"},"modified":"2026-10-20T18:51:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T10:51:25","slug":"%e5%88%a4%e6%96%b7%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3%e9%80%b2%e5%a0%b4%e8%a8%8a%e8%99%9f-%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92%e6%9c%ac%e7%9b%8a%e6%af%94-cape-ratio-%e6%98%af%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc-%e5%ae%83%e8%88%87%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1813","title":{"rendered":"\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 CAPE Ratio \u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u4f30\u503c\u9ad8\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u8a72\u8ce3\u80a1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300c\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u9019\u9ebc\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8a72\u5148\u8ce3\uff1f\u300d\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u6bcf\u9694\u5e7e\u5e74\u5c31\u6703\u6d41\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08CAPE\uff09\u662f\u80a1\u50f9\u9664\u4ee5 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708 16 \u65e5\u70ba 40.54 \u500d<\/strong><sup>[1]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u500b\u500d\u6578\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u7d04\u662f\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5be6\u8cea\u76c8\u9918\u7684 40 \u500d\uff0c\u6bd4 1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86 17.44 \u500d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8cb4\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a<sup>[1]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u5168\u540d\u662f\u9031\u671f\u6027\u8abf\u6574\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 CAPE\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388 Robert Shiller \u8207\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388 John Campbell \u63a8\u5ee3<sup>[4][5]<\/sup>\uff0c\u5b83\u628a\u80a1\u50f9\u9664\u4ee5\u300c\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u3001\u7d93\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u300d\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u9ad4\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u9577\u671f\u4f30\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CAPE \u9ad8\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u901a\u5e38\u5c0d\u61c9\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u5831\u916c\uff1b\u4f46\u5b83\u7121\u6cd5\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u54ea\u4e00\u5929\u8a72\u8ce3\u3001\u54ea\u4e00\u5929\u8a72\u8cb7\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u80a1\u8207\u53f0\u80a1\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u73fe\u5728\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u9805\u76ee<\/th>\n<th>\u6578\u503c<\/th>\n<th>\u65e5\u671f<\/th>\n<th>\u4f86\u6e90<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE\uff08S&amp;P 500\uff09<\/td>\n<td>40.54 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-10-16<\/td>\n<td>multpl\uff0c\u4f9d Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747<\/td>\n<td>17.44 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-10-16<\/td>\n<td>\u540c\u4e0a<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578<\/td>\n<td>16.13 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-10-16<\/td>\n<td>\u540c\u4e0a<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8<\/td>\n<td>44.19 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>1999-12<\/td>\n<td>\u540c\u4e0a<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u4f4e<\/td>\n<td>4.78 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>1920-12<\/td>\n<td>\u540c\u4e0a<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1929 \u5e74\u80a1\u707d\u524d\u9ad8\u9ede<\/td>\n<td>32.56 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>1929-09<\/td>\n<td>multpl \u6708\u8cc7\u6599<sup>[2]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2026 \u5e74\u6708\u8cc7\u6599\u9ad8\u9ede<\/td>\n<td>41.00 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-08<\/td>\n<td>2000 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8<sup>[2]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53f0\u80a1 CAPE\uff08MSCI Taiwan\uff09<\/td>\n<td>53.1 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-08 \u5e95<\/td>\n<td>Barclays\uff0cTrustnet \u6574\u7406<sup>[6]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE\uff08MSCI USA\uff0c\u540c\u53e3\u5f91\uff09<\/td>\n<td>39.6 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>2026-08 \u5e95<\/td>\n<td>Barclays\uff0cTrustnet \u6574\u7406<sup>[6]<\/sup><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u80a1\u76ee\u524d\u7684 CAPE \u50c5\u6b21\u65bc 1999\u20132000 \u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u9ad8\u65bc 1929 \u5e74\u80a1\u707d\u524d\uff1b\u53f0\u80a1\u7684 CAPE \u66f4\u9ad8\uff0cBarclays \u4ee5 MSCI \u6307\u6578\u8a08\u7b97\u7684 25 \u500b\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u6392\u7b2c\u4e00<sup>[6]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1813_\u7f8e\u80a1CAPE\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4d\u7f6e.png\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE \u6b77\u53f2\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff1a2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708 16 \u65e5 40.54 \u500d\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 1999 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8 44.19 \u500d\u8207 2026 \u5e74 8 \u6708 41.00 \u500d\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc 1929 \u5e74\u80a1\u707d\u524d 32.56 \u500d\uff0c\u7d04\u662f 1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747 17.44 \u500d\u7684 2.3 \u500d\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1amultpl.com \u4f9d Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97\uff082026-10-19 \u64f7\u53d6\uff09 [1][2] \uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6578\u5b57\u9019\u9ebc\u9ad8\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u53cd\u61c9\u662f\u300c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8a72\u5148\u8ce3\u300d\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u5148\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u9019\u500b\u500d\u6578\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u548c\u4e00\u822c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5dee\u5728\u54ea<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u822c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08P\/E\uff09\u662f\u80a1\u50f9\u9664\u4ee5\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u76c8\u9918\u6703\u96a8\u666f\u6c23\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u6642\u76c8\u9918\u9a5f\u964d\uff0c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u53cd\u800c\u98c6\u9ad8\uff0c\u666f\u6c23\u904e\u71b1\u6642\u76c8\u9918\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8b93\u4f30\u503c\u5224\u65b7\u5931\u771f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6253\u500b\u6bd4\u65b9\uff0c\u60f3\u9802\u4e0b\u4e00\u5bb6\u9eb5\u5e97\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u53bb\u5e74\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u7372\u5229\u51fa\u50f9\uff0c\u78b0\u4e0a\u751f\u610f\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u6703\u51fa\u592a\u4f4e\uff0c\u78b0\u4e0a\u89c0\u5149\u5ba2\u7206\u6eff\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u53c8\u6703\u51fa\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u7a69\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5e33\u672c\u6524\u958b\u4f86\u5e73\u5747\uff0cCAPE \u5c31\u662f\u7528\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u5f0f\u5e6b\u6574\u500b\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shiller \u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u5206\u6bcd\u62c9\u9577\u5230 10 \u5e74\uff0c\u4e26\u5148\u6263\u6389\u901a\u81a8<sup>[4]<\/sup>\uff0c10 \u5e74\u5927\u81f4\u6db5\u84cb\u4e00\u5230\u5169\u500b\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u597d\u5e74\u8207\u58de\u5e74\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u92b7\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u300d\u7684\u7372\u5229\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230 Benjamin Graham \u5728\u300a\u8b49\u5238\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff08Security Analysis\uff09\u4e2d\u5efa\u8b70\u7528\u591a\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u9918\u8a55\u50f9\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u6bd4\u8f03<\/th>\n<th>\u4e00\u822c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08P\/E\uff09<\/th>\n<th>\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08CAPE\uff09<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u5206\u6bcd<\/td>\n<td>\u6700\u8fd1 12 \u500b\u6708\u6216\u9810\u4f30 12 \u500b\u6708\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918<\/td>\n<td>\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574<\/td>\n<td>\u7121<\/td>\n<td>\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u76c8\u9918\u90fd\u63db\u7b97\u6210\u5be6\u8cea\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53d7\u666f\u6c23\u5f71\u97ff<\/td>\n<td>\u5927\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u6642\u5e38\u5931\u771f<\/td>\n<td>\u5c0f\uff0c\u5e73\u6ed1\u4e00\u5230\u5169\u500b\u5faa\u74b0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u9014<\/td>\n<td>\u500b\u80a1\u3001\u7522\u696d\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u6bd4\u8f03<\/td>\n<td>\u6574\u9ad4\u80a1\u5e02\u9577\u671f\u4f30\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53cd\u61c9\u901f\u5ea6<\/td>\n<td>\u5feb<\/td>\n<td>\u6162\uff0c\u76c8\u9918\u7d50\u69cb\u6539\u8b8a\u6642\u6703\u843d\u5f8c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shiller \u56e0\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5be6\u8b49\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8207 Eugene Fama\u3001Lars Peter Hansen \u5171\u540c\u7372\u5f97 2013 \u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e<sup>[14]<\/sup>\uff0cCAPE \u662f\u4ed6\u6700\u5e38\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u300d\uff0c\u7db2\u8def\u4e0a\u5076\u723e\u4e5f\u5beb\u6210\u300c\u559c\u6a02\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u300d\u300c\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alpha-cta alpha-cta-mid alpha-cta-news has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"border-left-color:#006ece;border-left-width:4px;background-color:#f3f7fb;padding:16px 20px\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u5316\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6574\u7406\u5728\u300a\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u300b\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-7b4500cd wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?page_id=18852#sib-form\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#006ece;border:2px solid #006ece;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u8a02\u95b1\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CAPE \u600e\u9ebc\u7b97\uff1f\u516c\u5f0f\u8207\u793a\u610f\u7bc4\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff1d\u5be6\u8cea\u80a1\u50f9 \u00f7 \u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5be6\u969b\u8a08\u7b97\u5206\u4e09\u6b65\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u628a\u904e\u53bb 120 \u500b\u6708\u7684\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u7528\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u63db\u7b97\u6210\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b<\/li>\n<li>\u628a\u9019 120 \u500b\u6708\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u76c8\u9918\u53d6\u5e73\u5747<\/li>\n<li>\u7528\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6307\u6578\u50f9\u683c\u9664\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u5e73\u5747\u503c<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u793a\u610f\u7bc4\u4f8b\uff08\u6578\u5b57\u70ba\u8aaa\u660e\u7528\uff0c\u975e\u5be6\u969b\u8cc7\u6599\uff09\uff1a\u6307\u6578\u50f9\u683c 6,000 \u9ede\uff0c\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u7d93\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u70ba 150 \u9ede\uff0cCAPE\uff1d6,000 \u00f7 150\uff1d40 \u500d\uff0c\u63db\u56de\u9eb5\u5e97\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7528 40 \u5e74\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u7372\u5229\u53bb\u9802\u9019\u5bb6\u5e97\uff08\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u7372\u5229\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u8981 40 \u5e74\u624d\u56de\u672c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1813_CAPE\u8a08\u7b97\u6b65\u9a5f.png\" alt=\"\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8a08\u7b97\u56db\u6b65\u793a\u610f\uff1a\u53d6\u904e\u53bb 120 \u500b\u6708\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\u3001\u7528\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u6263\u6389\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u5f97\u5230\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u518d\u7528\u76ee\u524d\u6307\u6578\u50f9\u683c\u9664\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u5e73\u5747\u503c\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aCampbell \u8207 Shiller\uff081998\uff09 [4] \uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CAPE \u5012\u904e\u4f86\u770b\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u9031\u671f\u8abf\u6574\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c1 \u00f7 40.54 \u2248 2.47%\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u4ee5\u76ee\u524d\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u9032\uff0c\u6bcf\u6295\u5165 100 \u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u5be6\u8cea\u76c8\u9918\u7d04 2.47 \u5143\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u5e38\u88ab\u62ff\u4f86\u548c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5c0d\u50b5\u5238\u8cb4\u4e0d\u8cb4\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u67e5\u8a62\u6709\u4e09\u500b\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u6e90\uff0cShiller \u672c\u4eba\u5728 shillerdata.com \u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u6599\uff081871 \u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u6708\u8cc7\u6599\uff09<sup>[3]<\/sup>\uff1bmultpl.com \u4f9d\u6b64\u8cc7\u6599\u6bcf\u65e5\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE<sup>[1]<\/sup>\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca Barclays\u3001Research Affiliates \u7b49\u6a5f\u69cb\u4ee5 MSCI \u6307\u6578\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5404\u570b CAPE\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u900f\u904e\u5a92\u9ad4\u6216\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u516c\u958b<sup>[6]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CAPE \u600e\u9ebc\u770b\uff1f\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u8207\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u5831\u916c<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Campbell \u8207 Shiller \u5728 1998 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c 10 \u5e74\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u50be\u5411\u8d8a\u4f4e<sup>[4]<\/sup>\uff0cShiller \u5728 2000 \u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u300b\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE \u6b63\u8655\u65bc 44 \u500d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u5e7e\u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\u7d93\u6b77\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u6ec5<sup>[5]<\/sup>\uff0cCAPE \u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u6b21\u5224\u65b7\u5ee3\u70ba\u4eba\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7528\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u7d44\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5927\u81f4\u6210\u7acb\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-2.png\" alt=\"\u4f9d\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u5340\u9593\u5206\u7d44\u7684 S&#038;P 500 \u5f8c\u7e8c 10 \u5e74\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u542b\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u8207\u6700\u4f4e\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 1\uff1a\u4f9d\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u5340\u9593\u5206\u7d44\uff0cS&amp;P 500 \u5f8c\u7e8c 10 \u5e74\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aCarlson\uff082015\uff09\uff0c\u4f9d Meb Faber \u6574\u7406\u4e4b Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97<sup>[12]<\/sup>\uff1b\u539f\u5716\u672a\u6a19\u793a\u662f\u5426\u6263\u9664\u901a\u81a8<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u5728 5\u201310 \u500d\u6642\uff0c\u5f8c\u7e8c 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c 13.53%\uff1b\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u5728 20\u201345 \u500d\u6642\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u50c5 5.13%\uff0c\u65b9\u5411\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4fbf\u5b9c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u3001\u672a\u4f86\u5831\u916c\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u9ad8\uff08\u5e97\u9802\u5f97\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u56de\u672c\u81ea\u7136\u5feb\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u904e\u540c\u4e00\u7d44\u8cc7\u6599\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u5206\u5e03\u975e\u5e38\u5bec\uff0c20\u201345 \u500d\u9019\u4e00\u7d44\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684 10 \u5e74\u4ecd\u6709 12.07% \u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\uff0c5\u201310 \u500d\u9019\u4e00\u7d44\uff0c\u6700\u5dee\u7684 10 \u5e74\u50c5 2.91%\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6307\u51fa\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u4fdd\u8b49\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vanguard \u5728 2012 \u5e74\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e86\u5341\u591a\u7a2e\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5831\u916c\u9810\u6e2c\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5 1926\u20132011 \u5e74\u8cc7\u6599\u6aa2\u9a57\uff0cCAPE \u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u4e0a\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u50c5\u80fd\u89e3\u91cb\u7d04\u56db\u6210\u7684\u5831\u916c\u8b8a\u7570\uff08R\u00b2 \u7d04 0.43\uff09<sup>[7]<\/sup>\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7d04\u516d\u6210\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u6280\u8853\u8b8a\u9769\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1813_CAPE\u89e3\u91cb\u529b.png\" alt=\"CAPE \u5c0d\u7f8e\u80a1\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u529b\uff1a\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u7d04\u89e3\u91cb 43% \u7684\u8b8a\u7570\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u7d04 57% \u4f86\u81ea\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u6280\u8853\u8b8a\u9769\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u60c5\u7dd2\u7b49\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aDavis\u3001Aliaga-D\u00edaz \u8207 Thomas\uff08Vanguard\uff0c2012\uff09\uff0c1926\u20132011 \u5e74\u8cc7\u6599 [7] \uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u80fd\u5224\u65b7\u9032\u51fa\u5834\u55ce\uff1f\u6587\u737b\u8b49\u64da\u8207\u9650\u5236<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u80fd\u89e3\u91cb\u56db\u6210\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u80fd\u7528\u4f86\u6293\u9032\u51fa\u5834\u6642\u9ede\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5169\u500b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u76f8\u7576\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8b49\u64da\u4e00\uff1a\u9ad8 CAPE \u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u597d\u5831\u916c<\/h3>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-3.png\" alt=\"1929 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u9054 26.5 \u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u8207 S&#038;P 500 \u5f8c\u7e8c 5 \u5e74\u300110 \u5e74\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 2\uff1a\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5e74\u521d CAPE \u9054 26.5 \u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0cS&amp;P 500 \u5f8c\u7e8c 5 \u5e74\u8207 10 \u5e74\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aCarlson\uff082015\uff09\uff0c\u4f9d Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97<sup>[12]<\/sup>\uff1b\u8868\u4e2d 2015 \u5e74\u4e00\u5217\u70ba\u539f\u6587\u64b0\u5beb\u6642\u5c1a\u672a\u767c\u751f\u7684\u671f\u9593<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carlson \u9019\u4efd\u6574\u7406\u5beb\u65bc 2015 \u5e74\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u5e74\u521d CAPE \u70ba 26.5 \u500d\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u56e0\u6b64\u4e3b\u5f35\u6e1b\u78bc\u7f8e\u80a1<sup>[12]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4f86\u770b\uff0cS&amp;P 500 \u5728 2015 \u5e74\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u542b\u80a1\u5229\u7684\u540d\u76ee\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7d04 13.38%\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u901a\u81a8\u7d04 10.26%<sup>[13]<\/sup>\uff0c\u63d0\u65e9\u56e0\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u96e2\u5834\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u932f\u904e\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1997\u30011998 \u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c\uff0cCAPE \u5df2\u9054 28\u201333 \u500d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53c8\u591a\u6f32\u4e86\u5169\u5e74\u591a\uff0cCAPE \u624d\u5728 1999 \u5e74\u5e95\u898b\u9802\uff1b\u4f30\u503c\u504f\u9ad8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u624d\u53cd\u8f49\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8b49\u64da\u4e8c\uff1a\u7528 CAPE \u8abf\u6574\u80a1\u7968\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u6548\u679c\u6709\u9650<\/h3>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AQR \u7684 Asness\u3001Ilmanen \u8207 Maloney\uff082017\uff09\u6aa2\u9a57\u4ee5\u4f30\u503c\u8abf\u6574\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u91cd\u7684\u64c7\u6642\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u7d50\u8ad6\u6fc3\u7e2e\u5728\u8ad6\u6587\u6a19\u984c\u300aMarket Timing: Sin a Little\u300b\uff1a\u4f30\u503c\u64c7\u6642\u7684\u6539\u5584\u5e45\u5ea6\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u50c5\u5efa\u8b70\u300c\u5c11\u91cf\u300d\u70ba\u4e4b<sup>[9]<\/sup><\/li>\n<li>Goyal \u8207 Welch\uff082008\uff09\u6aa2\u9a57\u5305\u542b\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5728\u5167\u7684\u5341\u591a\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u9810\u6e2c\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u6a23\u672c\u5916\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5be6\u969b\u5373\u6642\u64cd\u4f5c\uff09\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u529b\u666e\u904d\u4e0d\u5982\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c<sup>[10]<\/sup><\/li>\n<li>Dimensional Fund Advisors \u5206\u6790 CAPE \u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5831\u916c\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u5f8c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u6c7a\u7b56\u6709\u5be6\u8cea\u5e6b\u52a9\uff1b\u80a1\u7968\u5831\u916c\u6ce2\u52d5\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f9e\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u5831\u916c\u6e96\u78ba\u63a8\u4f30\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c<sup>[8]<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9650\u5236\uff1aCAPE \u672c\u8eab\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u4e5f\u6709\u722d\u8b70<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8cd3\u5dde\u5927\u5b78\u83ef\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u6559\u6388 Jeremy Siegel\uff082016\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6703\u8a08\u6e96\u5247\u5728 2000 \u5e74\u4ee3\u6539\u8b8a\u5546\u8b7d\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u6e1b\u640d\u7684\u8a8d\u5217\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f7f\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u7684\u5e33\u9762\u76c8\u9918\u88ab\u58d3\u5f97\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u9023\u5e36\u8b93 CAPE \u504f\u9ad8<sup>[11]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4ee5\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u5e33\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u66ff\u4ee3\u8ca1\u5831\u76c8\u9918\u91cd\u7b97\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6703\u660e\u986f\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff08\u5e33\u672c\u7684\u8a18\u6cd5\u6539\u4e86\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u81ea\u7136\u8ddf\u8457\u8b8a\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7684 S&amp;P 500 \u8207 1920 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7522\u696d\u7d50\u69cb\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u8edf\u9ad4\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u8f03\u9ad8\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8f03\u8f15\uff0c\u548c 100 \u5e74\u524d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u96b1\u542b\u300c\u7522\u696d\u7d50\u69cb\u4e0d\u8b8a\u300d\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u62ff\u8def\u908a\u6524\u7684\u884c\u60c5\u53bb\u4f30\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e2d\u592e\u5eda\u623f\uff0c\u500d\u6578\u7576\u7136\u6703\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u8cb4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6587\u737b\u5c0d\u7167\uff1aCAPE \u80fd\u8aaa\u660e\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3001\u4e0d\u80fd\u8aaa\u660e\u4ec0\u9ebc<\/h3>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u7814\u7a76<\/th>\n<th>\u8cc7\u6599<\/th>\n<th>\u4e3b\u8981\u767c\u73fe<\/th>\n<th>\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u601d<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Campbell \u8207 Shiller\uff081998\uff09<\/td>\n<td>\u7f8e\u80a1\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u6599<\/td>\n<td>\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u50be\u5411\u8d8a\u4f4e<sup>[4]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u8a2d\u5b9a\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u9810\u671f<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Carlson\uff082015\uff09<\/td>\n<td>\u4f9d Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u6309\u8d77\u59cb CAPE \u5206\u7d44<\/td>\n<td>\u8d77\u59cb 5\u201310 \u500d\uff0c\u5f8c\u7e8c 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5316 13.53%\uff1b20\u201345 \u500d\u5e73\u5747 5.13%\uff0c\u4f46\u8a72\u7d44\u6700\u597d\u7684 10 \u5e74\u4ecd\u6709 12.07%<sup>[12]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u65b9\u5411\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u55ae\u6b21\u7d50\u679c\u5206\u5e03\u5f88\u5bec<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Davis \u7b49\uff08Vanguard\uff0c2012\uff09<\/td>\n<td>1926\u20132011 \u5e74<\/td>\n<td>\u5341\u591a\u7a2e\u6307\u6a19\u4e2d CAPE \u9810\u6e2c 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u6700\u597d\uff0cR\u00b2 \u7d04 0.43<sup>[7]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u7d04\u516d\u6210\u5831\u916c\u8b8a\u7570\u4f86\u81ea\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u5916<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Goyal \u8207 Welch\uff082008\uff09<\/td>\n<td>\u5341\u591a\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u9810\u6e2c\u8b8a\u6578<\/td>\n<td>\u6a23\u672c\u5916\u9810\u6e2c\u529b\u666e\u904d\u4e0d\u5982\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c<sup>[10]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u770b\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u5373\u6642\u64cd\u4f5c\u6293\u4e0d\u6e96<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Asness\u3001Ilmanen \u8207 Maloney\uff082017\uff09<\/td>\n<td>\u4ee5\u4f30\u503c\u8abf\u6574\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u91cd\u7684\u64c7\u6642\u7b56\u7565<\/td>\n<td>\u6539\u5584\u5e45\u5ea6\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u50c5\u5efa\u8b70\u300c\u5c11\u91cf\u300d\u70ba\u4e4b<sup>[9]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u4e0d\u5b9c\u4f9d CAPE \u5927\u5e45\u9032\u51fa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Siegel\uff082016\uff09<\/td>\n<td>\u4ee5\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u5e33\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u91cd\u7b97<\/td>\n<td>\u6703\u8a08\u6e96\u5247\u6539\u8b8a\u4f7f CAPE \u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u91cd\u7b97\u5f8c\u9ad8\u4f30\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7e2e\u5c0f<sup>[11]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>\u548c\u767e\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6bd4\u8f03\u8981\u6253\u6298<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0cCAPE \u9069\u5408\u7528\u4f86\u8a2d\u5b9a\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\u5831\u916c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u65bc\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u7576\u4f5c\u8cb7\u9032\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u554f\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u5230\u5e95\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9032\u5834\u300d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=2244\">\u80a1\u7968\u9032\u5834\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u5165\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\uff1f\u65b0\u624b\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8cb7\u5728\u9ad8\u9ede\uff1f<\/a>\u300b\uff0c\u90a3\u7bc7\u7528 S&amp;P 500 \u6b77\u6b21\u5927\u8dcc\u8207\u5275\u9ad8\u5f8c\u9032\u5834\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7d50\u679c\u56de\u7b54\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53f0\u80a1\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u8003\u55ce\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u770b\u53f0\u80a1\u7684 CAPE \u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u5148\u77e5\u9053\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0cShiller \u6c92\u6709\u516c\u5e03\u53f0\u80a1\u7684 CAPE\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u8b49\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff0c\u7db2\u8def\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u7684\u53f0\u80a1 CAPE\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u662f Barclays\u3001Research Affiliates \u7b49\u6a5f\u69cb\u4ee5 MSCI Taiwan \u6307\u6578\u81ea\u884c\u8a08\u7b97<sup>[6]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u6307\u6578\u3001\u76c8\u9918\u53e3\u5f91\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6578\u5b57\u4e0d\u80fd\u6df7\u8457\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u53f0\u80a1 53.1 \u500d\u7684\u9ad8 CAPE\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4f86\u81ea\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577\u592a\u5feb\uff0cCAPE \u7684\u5206\u6bcd\u662f\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u7576\u7372\u5229\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5927\u5e45\u6210\u9577\uff0c10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6703\u9060\u9060\u843d\u5f8c\u7576\u671f\u76c8\u9918\uff0cCAPE \u5c31\u6703\u88ab\u63a8\u9ad8\uff08\u9eb5\u5e97\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u7a81\u7136\u6392\u968a\u6392\u5230\u5df7\u53e3\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u5e33\u672c\u7576\u7136\u8ffd\u4e0d\u4e0a\uff09\uff0cTrustnet \u5f15\u8ff0 Barclays \u8cc7\u6599\u6642\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53f0\u80a1\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u53d7\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u6b0a\u91cd\u64f4\u5927\u8207 AI \u984c\u6750\u5f71\u97ff\u5f88\u5927<sup>[6]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u53f0\u80a1\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u6b77\u53f2\u77ed\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6709 150 \u591a\u5e74\u7684\u6708\u8cc7\u6599\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u300d\uff0c\u53f0\u80a1\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u76c8\u9918\u8cc7\u6599\u9060\u77ed\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u300c\u53f0\u80a1 CAPE \u7684\u5408\u7406\u5340\u9593\u300d\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u5920\u6a23\u672c\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\u53f0\u80a1\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u7528\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u300c\u53f0\u80a1\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u5834\u8ab0\u6bd4\u8f03\u8cb4\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u5957\u7528\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u5224\u65b7\u9ad8\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u89ba\u5f97 CAPE \u5f88\u9069\u5408\u62ff\u4f86\u770b\u5e97\u9762\u884c\u60c5\u8cb4\u4e0d\u8cb4\uff0c\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u62ff\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e00\u5929\u9032\u51fa\uff0c40.54 \u500d\u5c0d 17.44 \u500d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u5e97\u9762\u78ba\u5be6\u8cb4\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5e33\u672c\u4e0a\u770b\u4e0d\u51fa\u884c\u60c5\u54ea\u4e00\u5929\u6703\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vanguard \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8aaa\u5b83\u80fd\u89e3\u91cb\u7d04\u56db\u6210\u7684 10 \u5e74\u5831\u916c\u8b8a\u7570\uff0c\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u6240\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u6307\u6a19\u88e1\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u516d\u6210\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2015 \u5e74\u90a3\u6279\u56e0\u70ba 26.5 \u500d\u5c31\u6e1b\u78bc\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8ad6\u9ede\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u932f\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u78ba\u5be6\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u932f\u5728\u628a\u300c\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u4f4e\u300d\u76f4\u63a5\u7ffb\u8b6f\u6210\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u8a72\u8ce3\u300d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u932f\u904e\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u5e74\u5316\u7d04 13.38% \u7684\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u770b CAPE \u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u662f\u62ff\u5b83\u4f86\u8abf\u6574\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u505a\u9577\u671f\u8a66\u7b97\u6642\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5831\u916c\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u5fc3\u88e1\u5148\u6e96\u5099\u597d\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u672a\u5fc5\u50cf\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u90a3\u9ebc\u597d\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u56de\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u4f86\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9eb5\u5e97\u9802\u5f97\u8cb4\uff0c\u56de\u672c\u6703\u6162\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4e0d\u5403\u98ef\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u8fa6\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f30\u503c\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u5927\u6982\u843d\u5728\u54ea\u88e1\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u8207\u7d00\u5f8b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6211\u5011\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u62ff\u5230\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alpha-cta alpha-cta-end alpha-cta-news has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background-color:#f3f7fb;padding:32px 20px\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(16.834px, 1.052rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.716), 26px);font-weight:700\">\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u6bcf\u5929\u8ffd<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u8a02\u95b1\u300a\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u300b\u96fb\u5b50\u5831\uff0c\u6536\u5230\u5c08\u5bb6\u89c0\u9ede\u8207\u6d3b\u52d5\u63d0\u9192<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe0a7de2 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?page_id=18852#sib-form\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#006ece;border:2px solid #006ece;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u8a02\u95b1\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/urli.ai\/line\/XpZpxkKi\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#00b900;background-color:#ffffff;border:2px solid #00b900;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u52a0 LINE \u554f\u9867\u554f<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/h2>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u591a\u5c11\u624d\u7b97\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c92\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u503c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1 1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747\u7d04 17.44 \u500d<sup>[1]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f46 1990 \u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE \u5927\u591a\u6642\u9593\u9ad8\u65bc\u9019\u500b\u5e73\u5747<sup>[2]<\/sup>\uff0c\u6703\u8a08\u6e96\u5247\u3001\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u8207\u7522\u696d\u7d50\u69cb\u90fd\u548c\u904e\u53bb\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u300c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u300d\u4ee3\u8868\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u56de\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CAPE \u9ad8\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c31\u6703\u5d29\u76e4\u55ce\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\uff0c1929 \u5e74\u8207 2000 \u5e74\u7684\u9ad8 CAPE \u4e4b\u5f8c\u78ba\u5be6\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46 1997 \u5e74\u30012015 \u5e74\u7b49\u9ad8 CAPE \u5e74\u4efd\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u4ecd\u6709\u591a\u5e74\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5d29\u76e4\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u89f8\u767c\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5229\u7387\u6025\u5347\u6216\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u5371\u6a5f\uff1b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u80a1\u707d\u524d\u5146\u8207 1987 \u5e74\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\u7684\u7d93\u904e\uff0c\u6574\u7406\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=2236\">\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u524d\u5146\uff1f1987\u5e74\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00<\/a>\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u548c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff0c\u8a72\u770b\u54ea\u4e00\u500b\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u770b\u7528\u9014\uff1a\u8a55\u4f30\u500b\u80a1\u6216\u6bd4\u8f03\u540c\u696d\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u6216\u9810\u4f30\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8f03\u5373\u6642\uff1b\u8a55\u4f30\u6574\u500b\u80a1\u5e02\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u7684\u5831\u916c\u74b0\u5883\uff0cCAPE \u8f03\u4e0d\u53d7\u55ae\u4e00\u5e74\u5ea6\u666f\u6c23\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u5b9c\u55ae\u7368\u7528\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u822c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u4f7f\u7528 CAPE\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u5b83\u7576\u6210\u8a2d\u5b9a\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0cCAPE \u504f\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u898f\u5283\u9000\u4f11\u6216\u76ee\u6a19\u8a66\u7b97\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a1\u7528\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5831\u916c\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u4e26\u78ba\u8a8d\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u5ea6\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4f9d\u4f30\u503c\u5927\u5e45\u9032\u51fa\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u6548\u679c\u6709\u9650<sup>[8][9]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80<\/h2>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=2244\">\u80a1\u7968\u9032\u5834\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u5165\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\uff1f\u65b0\u624b\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8cb7\u5728\u9ad8\u9ede\uff1f<\/a>\u300b\uff1a\u9069\u5408\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u80a1\u5e02\u9ad8\u6a94\u6642\u9084\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9032\u5834\u7684\u4eba<\/li>\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=2236\">\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u524d\u5146\uff1f1987\u5e74\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00<\/a>\u300b\uff1a\u9069\u5408\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u6b77\u53f2\u80a1\u707d\u524d\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u54ea\u4e9b\u8a0a\u865f\u7684\u4eba<\/li>\n<li>\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=14700\">\u6307\u6578\u5316\u6295\u8cc7\u6307\u5357\uff1aVT\u3001S&amp;P 500\u30010052 \u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\u5168\u89e3\u6790<\/a>\u300b\uff1a\u9069\u5408\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u4e0d\u64c7\u6642\u3001\u9577\u671f\u6301\u6709\u6307\u6578\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u4eba<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\", \"@type\": \"FAQPage\", \"mainEntity\": [{\"@type\": \"Question\", \"name\": \"\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u591a\u5c11\u624d\u7b97\u5408\u7406\uff1f\", \"acceptedAnswer\": {\"@type\": \"Answer\", \"text\": \"\u6c92\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u503c\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1 1871 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747\u7d04 17.44 \u500d<sup>[1]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f46 1990 \u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7f8e\u80a1 CAPE 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class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>[1] multpl. (2026). <em>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio<\/em>. 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u64f7\u53d6\u3002https:\/\/www.multpl.com\/shiller-pe<\/li>\n<li>[2] multpl. (2026). <em>Shiller PE ratio by month<\/em>. 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u64f7\u53d6\u3002https:\/\/www.multpl.com\/shiller-pe\/table\/by-month<\/li>\n<li>[3] Shiller, R. J. (n.d.). <em>U.S. stock price data, annual, with consumption, both short and long rates, and present value calculations; monthly data and CAPE ratio<\/em> [Data set]. https:\/\/shillerdata.com\/<\/li>\n<li>[4] Campbell, J. Y., &amp; Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. <em>The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24<\/em>(2), 11\u201326.<\/li>\n<li>[5] Shiller, R. J. (2000). <em>Irrational exuberance<\/em>. Princeton University Press.<\/li>\n<li>[6] Jones, J. (2026, September 29). <em>The world&#8217;s most expensive and cheapest markets<\/em>. Trustnet. https:\/\/www.trustnet.com\/news\/13484819\/the-worlds-most-expensive-and-cheapest-markets<\/li>\n<li>[7] Davis, J. H., Aliaga-D\u00edaz, R., &amp; Thomas, C. J. (2012). <em>Forecasting stock returns: What signals matter, and what do they say now?<\/em> The Vanguard Group.<\/li>\n<li>[8] Dimensional Fund Advisors. (n.d.). <em>CAPE fear: Should investors be concerned with market valuations?<\/em> https:\/\/www.dimensional.com\/us-en\/insights\/cape-fear-should-investors-be-concerned-with-market-valuations<\/li>\n<li>[9] Asness, C. S., Ilmanen, A., &amp; Maloney, T. (2017). Market timing: Sin a little. <em>Journal of Investment Management, 15<\/em>(3), 23\u201340.<\/li>\n<li>[10] Goyal, A., &amp; Welch, I. (2008). A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction. <em>The Review of Financial Studies, 21<\/em>(4), 1455\u20131508.<\/li>\n<li>[11] Siegel, J. J. (2016). The Shiller CAPE ratio: A new look. <em>Financial Analysts Journal, 72<\/em>(3), 41\u201350.<\/li>\n<li>[12] Carlson, B. (2015, June). <em>CAPE fear of lower returns<\/em>. A Wealth of Common Sense. https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/2015\/06\/cape-fear-of-lower-returns\/<\/li>\n<li>[13] Official Data Foundation. (n.d.). <em>S&amp;P 500 returns: 2015 to 2024<\/em>. \u4f9d Shiller \u8cc7\u6599\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40 CPI \u8a08\u7b97\u3002https:\/\/www.officialdata.org\/us\/stocks\/s-p-500\/2015?amount=100&amp;endYear=2024<\/li>\n<li>[14] The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. (2013, October 14). <em>The Prize in Economic Sciences 2013<\/em> [Press release]. https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/2013\/press-release\/<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u91cd\u8981\u8072\u660e<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7531\u963f\u723e\u767c\u8b49\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u9867\u554f\u80a1\u4efd\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\u7de8\u88fd\uff0c\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u4e0d\u69cb\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u91d1\u878d\u5546\u54c1\u4e4b\u8981\u7d04\u3001\u62db\u652c\u6216\u63a8\u4ecb\uff0c\u4ea6\u975e\u91dd\u5c0d\u7279\u5b9a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4e4b\u500b\u5225\u6295\u8cc7\u5efa\u8b70\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u4f9d\u81ea\u8eab\u8ca1\u52d9\u72c0\u6cc1\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u5ea6\u5be9\u614e\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u4e26\u81ea\u884c\u627f\u64d4\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u6b77\u53f2\u7d71\u8a08\u4fc2\u4ee5\u6b77\u53f2\u6307\u6578\u8cc7\u6599\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u672a\u6263\u9664\u8cbb\u7528\u8207\u7a05\u8ca0\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u4efb\u4f55\u5be6\u969b\u5e33\u6236\u7e3e\u6548\uff1b\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u50c5\u53cd\u6620\u904e\u53bb\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u975e\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u4e4b\u9810\u6e2c\u6216\u4fdd\u8b49\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u7e3e\u6548\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u672a\u4f86\u8868\u73fe\u3002\u963f\u723e\u767c\u8b49\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u9867\u554f\u80a1\u4efd\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\u3000115\u91d1\u7ba1\u6295\u9867\u65b0\u5b57\u7b2c019\u865f<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE\u7f8e\u80a12026\/10\u7d0440.5\u500d\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u574717.4\u500d\uff1b\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u8a72\u8ce3\u80a1\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[566],"tags":[1096,50,1097,1099,198,1100,1098,1101,1102],"class_list":["post-1813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-566","tag-cape","tag-cape-ratio","tag-shiller-cape","tag-1099","tag-198","tag-1100","tag-1098","tag-1101","tag-1102"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/00-cover-40.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1813"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18354,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813\/revisions\/18354"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}