{"id":1813,"date":"2022-02-22T10:26:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-22T02:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1813"},"modified":"2022-02-22T10:26:00","modified_gmt":"2022-02-22T02:26:00","slug":"%e5%88%a4%e6%96%b7%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3%e9%80%b2%e5%a0%b4%e8%a8%8a%e8%99%9f-%e5%b8%ad%e5%8b%92%e6%9c%ac%e7%9b%8a%e6%af%94-cape-ratio-%e6%98%af%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc-%e5%ae%83%e8%88%87%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1813","title":{"rendered":"\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 CAPE Ratio\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u5224\u65b7\u8cb7\u8ce3\u9032\u5834\u8a0a\u865f\uff1f\u5b83\u8207\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\uff1f\u771f\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u9ad8\u4f4e\u9ede\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5e38\u5e38\u6703\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6a19\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u9069\u5408\u9032\u5834\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u6211\u5011\u6703<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u4ee5\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aCAPE Ratio\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u7531\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5b78\u8005 Robert Shiller \u5728 1998 \u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"aioseo-cape-ratio\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>CAPE Ratio\u5168\u540d\u70ba Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 CAPE\u3001Shiller P\/E\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u9032\u5316\u7248\uff0c<strong>\u9019\u88e1\u7684 EPS \u6703\u662f\u4ee5\u904e\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u7684\u5be6\u969b EPS \u6578\u503c\u53bb\u63a8\u7b97<\/strong>\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u597d\u8655\u662f<strong>\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u6709\u4e9b\u7522\u696d\u7684\u5546\u696d\u9031\u671f\u6027\u6ce2\u52d5<\/strong>\uff0c\u8f03\u80fd\u5920\u53cd\u61c9\u5168\u8c8c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8a31\u591a\u6cd5\u4eba\u628a CAPE Ratio \u4f5c\u70ba\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u5462\uff1f\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u771f\u7684 100% \u5177\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u9084\u662f\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\"><strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u8b8a\u6578\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u9593\u5177\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\uff0c<\/mark>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u7d55\u5c0d\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u55ae\u4e00\u8b8a\u6578\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aGDP\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u3001CAPE Ratio \u6216 \u5347\u964d\u606f\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u5224\u65b7\u80a1\u5e02\u8a72\u4e0d\u8a72\u8cb7\u6216\u8ce3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u578b\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8 DFA\uff08Dimensional Fund Advisor\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u4e00\u76f4\u53d7\u5230\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u4ed6\u5011\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u9019\u4e9b\u6307\u6a19\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u6c7a\u7b56\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4f5c\u7528<\/mark>\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"aioseo-\"><strong>\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 CAPE Ratio\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u50c5\u4f9b\u53c3\u8003?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u5be6\u8b49\u7814\u7a76\u7686\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u80a1\u7968\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u9ad8\u4f4e\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u4ee5\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff08P \/ B Ratio\uff09\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u9032\u884c\u5206\u985e\u4e26\u89c0\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u91cf\u8b49\u64da\u8868\u660e\uff0c<strong>\u5c0d\u65bc\u5c0b\u6c42\u9577\u671f\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u76e4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5f37\u8abf\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>\u3002\uff08F-F 3 \u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2705<strong>\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff08P\/B Ratio\uff09<\/strong>\u662f\u6307\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u6bcf\u80a1\u6de8\u8cc7\u7522\uff08\u6216\u6bcf\u80a1\u6de8\u503c\uff09\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u8a08\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u70ba\uff1a\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4= \u6bcf\u80a1\u6de8\u8cc7\u7522 \/ \u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u200b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u5982\u679c\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u8fa8\u8b58\u4e0d\u540c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5b83\u5011\u5c0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u50f9\u503c\u6c92\u6709\u7528\u8655\u5462\uff1f<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u80a1\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u958b\u59cb\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u4ee3\u8868<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u516c\u53f8\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u6298\u73fe\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u4f4e\u9810\u671f\u3001\u9ad8\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u6216\u5169\u8005\u517c\u5177\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u4f01\u696d\u4f30\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5247\u610f\u5473\u8457\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5f9e\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5206\u96e2\u51fa\u672a\u4f86\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u548c\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u624d\u6703\u5c0d\u65bc\u4f7f\u7528\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u8b58\u5225\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u69cb\u6210\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u89e3\u67e5\u770b\u904e\u53bb\u4e0d\u540c\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u7bc4\u570d\u8207\u7f8e\u570b S&amp;P 500 \u9593\u7684\u76f8\u61c9\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5448\u73fe\u5f9e 1900 \u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u7bc4\u570d\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u570b S&amp;P 500\u5be6\u969b\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u5176\u5831\u916c\u7387\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3001\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u8207\u6700\u4f73\u548c\u6700\u5dee\u8868\u73fe\u5448\u73fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"475\" height=\"173\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1814\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-2.png 475w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-2-300x109.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b77\u53f2\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u6578\u64da\u78ba\u5be6\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u7684\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u800c\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u883b\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u652f\u4ed8\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u61c9\u8a72\u7372\u53d6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u9ad8\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u53e6\u5916\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u6709\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u8a31\u591a\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u767c\u751f\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u8d85\u904e 25 \u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u4f46\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7 10 \u5e74\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u9019\u5f35\u8868\u4f60\u5927\u6982\u5c31\u6703\u5b89\u5fc3\u8a31\u591a\uff0c<mark style=\"background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\"><b>\u4e26\u975e\u6bcf\u6b21\u7d50\u679c\u90fd\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e26\u975e\u6bcf\u6b21\u7684\u9ad8<\/b><\/mark><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4CAPE Ratio\u90fd\u4ee3\u8868\u672a\u4f86\u9577\u671f\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u597d\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"438\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-3.png 438w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/107-3-300x255.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 438px) 100vw, 438px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u6b77\u53f2\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u8a72\u9810\u671f\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5831\u916c\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4fdd\u8b49\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u592a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u5011\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6c89\u6d78\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5e7b\u60f3\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u760b\u72c2\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"aioseo-\"><strong>\u6295\u8cc7\u5f9e\u672a\u5982\u6b64\u7c21\u55ae<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6a19\u5c31\u9032\u884c\u5e02\u5834\u64c7\u6642\uff0c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u55ae\u4e00\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u7c21\u55ae\u5224\u65b7\u78ba\u5207\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9032\u5165\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u6642\u9593\u53bb\u514c\u73fe\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u6700\u597d\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u63a1\u53d6\u56b4\u8085\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u76ee\u524dCAPE Ratio 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