{"id":1834,"date":"2021-08-31T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-31T02:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1834"},"modified":"2026-06-03T13:44:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T05:44:30","slug":"%e3%80%8c%e4%bb%96%e3%80%8d%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc%e6%9c%83%e7%89%b9%e5%88%a5%e7%82%ab%e8%80%80%e8%b2%b7%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e9%a3%86%e8%82%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1834","title":{"rendered":"\u300c\u4ed6\u300d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u7279\u5225\u70ab\u8000\u8cb7\u5230\u7684\u98c6\u80a1?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u805a\u6703\u4e2d\u9592\u8a71\u5bb6\u5e38\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u5e36\u8457\u70ab\u8000\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\u8207\u5225\u4eba\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u8cb7\u4e86\u67d0\u67d0\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u67d0\u67d0\u57fa\u91d1\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u67d0\u67d0\u865b\u64ec\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u5927\u8cfa\u4e86\u4e00\u7b46\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e00\u4e00\u4ecb\u7d39\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u8667\u640d\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u5c31\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u7a4d\u6975\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528\u6982\u62ec\u6027\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u650f\u7d71\u5e36\u904e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u5229\u5f97\u8207\u640d\u5931\u5169\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u5f85\u3002\u800c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u5340\u5206\u5462\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u884c\u70ba\u8ca1\u52d9\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6<\/mark><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6(prospect theory)\uff0d\u662f\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u7531\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u6559\u6388Daniel Kahneman\u4ee5\u53caAmos Nathan Tverskyw\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u65bc\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8a8d\u5b9a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6\u5728\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u5831\u916c\u8207\u6548\u7528\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u66f4\u8cbc\u8fd1\u73fe\u5be6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/p0.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>X\u8ef8\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u7372\u5229\u6216\u640d\u5931\uff0cY\u8ef8\u4ee3\u8868\u7372\u5229\u6216\u640d\u5931\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u3002\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6\u8868\u9054\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u540c\u6a23\u55ae\u4f4d\u7684\u7372\u5229\u4ee5\u53ca\u640d\u5931\u6240\u611f\u53d7\u7684\u6548\u7528(\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u958b\u5fc3\u6216\u75db\u82e6)\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7372\u52291\u842c\u5143\u5e36\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u958b\u5fc3\u4e0d\u53ca\u640d\u59311\u842c\u5143\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5728\u640d\u5931\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u98a8\u96aa\u611b\u597d\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u7372\u5229\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u98a8\u96aa\u8da8\u907f\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u5148\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4e00\u500b\u51fd\u6578Value=v(x)\uff0cx\u4ee3\u8868\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u76ee\u524d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7372\u5229\u6216\u640d\u5931\uff0cy\u4ee3\u8868\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7372\u5229\u6216\u640d\u5931\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6548\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6548\u7528<\/mark><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u89e3\u91cb\u958b\u982d\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u60c5\u6cc1\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u5148\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u6703\u53ea\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u6a19\u7684\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u591a\u500b\u3002\u800c\u5177\u6709\u591a\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u90e8\u4f4d\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u8ced\u5c40\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u70ba\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u985e(\u591a\u91cd\u5229\u5f97\u3001\u6df7\u5408\u5229\u5f97\u3001\u6df7\u548c\u640d\u5931\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u91cd\u640d\u5931)\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e00\u4ecb\u7d39\u5728\u5404\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u57fa\u65bc\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6642\u5982\u4f55\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u65b9\u4fbf\u89e3\u8aaa\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5206\u5225\u6301\u6709x\u8cc7\u7522\u4ee5\u53cay\u8cc7\u7522\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(1) \u591a\u91cd\u5229\u5f97:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5x\u8cc7\u7522\u8207y\u8cc7\u7522\u90fd\u662f\u5229\u5f97\uff0c\u5247\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u5206\u958b\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00v(x+y)&lt;v(x)+v(y)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u5169\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5229\u5f97\u52a0\u7e3d\u5f8c\u770b\u5f85\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u958b\u5fc3\u611f\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5206\u958b\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u7684\u958b\u5fc3\u611f\u52a0\u7e3d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(2)\u591a\u91cd\u640d\u5931:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5x\u8cc7\u7522\u8207y\u8cc7\u7522\u90fd\u662f\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u5247\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u7e3d\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00v(x+y)&gt;v(x)+v(y)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u5169\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u640d\u5931\u52a0\u7e3d\u5f8c\u770b\u5f85\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5931\u671b\u611f\u6bd4\u5206\u958b\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u4f86\u7684\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(3)\u6df7\u5408\u5229\u5f97:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5x\u8cc7\u7522\u8207y\u8cc7\u7522\u4e00\u500b\u70ba\u5229\u5f97\u4e00\u500b\u70ba\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u4e14\u5229\u5f97\u5927\u65bc\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u5247\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u4e00\u8d77\u770b\u5f85\u640d\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u800c\u8a00v(x+y)&gt;v(x)+v(y)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u52a0\u7e3d\u5f8c\u70ba\u5229\u5f97\uff0c\u4e14\u640d\u5931\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8ca0\u6548\u7528\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u7372\u5229\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6b63\u6548\u7528\u4f86\u5f97\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(4)\u6df7\u548c\u640d\u5931:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5x\u8cc7\u7522\u8207y\u8cc7\u7522\u4e00\u500b\u70ba\u5229\u5f97\u4e00\u500b\u70ba\u640d\u5931\u3002\u4e14\u640d\u5931\u5927\u65bc\u5229\u5f97\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u82e5\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u5224\u65b7\u52a0\u7e3d\u770b\u5f85\u8f03\u597d\u9084\u662f\u5206\u958b\u770b\u5f85\u8f03\u597d\uff0c\u82e5v(x+y)&gt;v(x)+v(y)\uff0c\u5247\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u7e3d\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5229\u5f97\u8207\u640d\u5931\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/p1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5v(x+y)&lt;v(x)+v(y)\uff0c\u5247\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u50be\u5411\u5206\u958b\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5229\u5f97\u8207\u640d\u5931\u5dee\u8ddd\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6642\u4faf\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5229\u5f97\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u640d\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/p2.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\">\u8861\u91cf\u6295\u8cc7\u7e3e\u6548\u7684\u57fa\u6e96<\/mark><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u5c55\u671b\u7406\u8ad6\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u70ba\u4e86\u8981\u5c07\u6548\u7528\u6975\u5927\u5316\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u8861\u91cf\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7e3e\u6548\u6642\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u4ee5\u6574\u9ad4\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u7576\u6211\u5011\u6bcf\u6b21\u5728\u8861\u91cf\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7e3e\u6548\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u4ee5\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u50f9\u503c\u9032\u884c\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4e2d\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u4ee5\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u5c0d\u65bc\u6574\u9ad4\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u70ba\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u3002\u5982\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u624d\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c0\u3001\u7406\u6027\u4e26\u4e14\u6709\u7d00\u5f8b\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u81ea\u5df1\u7576\u521d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u5728\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div 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