{"id":18753,"date":"2026-10-22T11:09:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T03:09:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=18753"},"modified":"2026-10-22T11:09:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T03:09:46","slug":"equity-risk-premium-earnings-yield","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=18753","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u7f8e\u80a1\u964d\u52302008\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u80a1\u7968\u8cb4\u4e0d\u8cb4\uff0c\u5149\u770b\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8aaa\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u8981\u62ff\u5b83\u8ddf\u516c\u50b5\u6bd4\uff0c\u518d\u770b\u4f01\u696d\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u6548\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u500b\u6bd4\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u53eb\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\uff08equity risk premium\uff0cERP\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u70ba\u4e86\u627f\u64d4\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u516c\u50b5\u591a\u7d66\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u7d10\u7d04\u5927\u5b78\u7684 Aswath Damodaran \u6559\u6388\u6bcf\u6708\u4f30\u7b97\u4e00\u6b21\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ea2\u916c\uff0c2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u662f 3.70%\uff0c\u70ba\u4ed6 2008 \u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u516c\u5e03\u6708\u8cc7\u6599\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e<sup>[1]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7814\u7a76\u52d5\u6a5f<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e6b\u5b78\u6821\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6e96\u5099\u5e02\u5834\u5c55\u671b\u6642\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u88ab\u554f\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\u662f\u300c\u9577\u671f\u5927\u6982\u80fd\u8cfa\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u300d\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u7f8e\u80a1\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u592a\u8cb4\u4e86\uff1f\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u5169\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u984c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u628a\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u7063\u3001\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u4e94\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u3001ROE \u548c\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4e5f\u7ffb\u4e86 CFA \u8ab2\u7a0b\u3001\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5e7e\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u5230\u5e95\u80fd\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff08\u9084\u6709\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u3001\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207 ROE\uff0c\u5404\u5728\u91cf\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08earnings yield\uff09\u662f\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u5012\u6578\uff0c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 20 \u500d\uff0c\u7b49\u65bc\u6bcf\u4ed8 100 \u5143\u8cb7\u5230 5 \u5143\u7684\u5e74\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5c31\u662f 5%\uff081\u00f720\uff1d5%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u6709\u4e09\u500b\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u7528\u904e\u53bb 12 \u500b\u6708\u5be6\u969b\u76c8\u9918\u7b97\u7684\u53eb\u843d\u5f8c\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86 12 \u500b\u6708\u9810\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u53eb\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u5341\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u9918\u7b97\u7684\u5247\u662f\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\uff08CAPE\uff09\u7684\u5012\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ROE\uff08return on equity\uff0c\u80a1\u6771\u6b0a\u76ca\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff09\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u62ff\u80a1\u6771\u7684\u9322\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5b83\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8981\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u6709\u500b\u524d\u63d0\uff1a\u516c\u53f8\u628a\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u62ff\u53bb\u518d\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u5831\u916c\u7387\u525b\u597d\u7b49\u65bc\u8cc7\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ROE \u6bd4\u8cc7\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u6703\u5275\u9020\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u672a\u4f86\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5 CFA \u8ab2\u7a0b\u3008\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u3009\uff08Capital Market Expectations\uff09\u4f30\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u7528\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff08P\/B\uff09\u548c ROE \u4e00\u8d77\u53cd\u63a8<sup>[2]<\/sup>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5408\u7406 P\/B \uff1d\uff08ROE \u2212 \u9577\u671f\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff09\u00f7\uff08\u8981\u6c42\u5831\u916c \u2212 \u9577\u671f\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff09<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u79fb\u9805\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5f9e\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u7b97\u51fa\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9858\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u518d\u6e1b\u6389\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6ea2\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u5728\u5404\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u5e02\u5834\uff08MSCI \u6307\u6578\uff09<\/th>\n<th>\u524d\u77bb\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4<\/th>\n<th>\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387<\/th>\n<th>\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4<\/th>\n<th>ROE<\/th>\n<th>10 \u5e74\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u7f8e\u570b<\/td>\n<td>19.38 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>5.16%<\/td>\n<td>5.65 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>22.3%<\/td>\n<td>5.29%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u65e5\u672c<\/td>\n<td>15.63 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>6.40%<\/td>\n<td>2.01 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>10.4%<\/td>\n<td>3.06%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53f0\u7063<\/td>\n<td>18.65 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>5.36%<\/td>\n<td>5.99 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>20.3%<\/td>\n<td>\u7d04 1.96%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834<\/td>\n<td>17.92 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>5.58%<\/td>\n<td>4.10 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>18.1%<\/td>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834<\/td>\n<td>9.72 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>10.29%<\/td>\n<td>2.39 \u500d<\/td>\n<td>16.0%<\/td>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u8cc7\u6599\u65e5\u671f 2026\/09\/30\uff1bROE \u4ee5\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u9664\u4ee5\u843d\u5f8c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u63db\u7b97\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aMSCI<sup>[3]<\/sup>\u3001FRED<sup>[4]<\/sup>\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701<sup>[5]<\/sup>\u3001Trading Economics<sup>[6]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u7279\u5225\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387 5.16% \u548c 10 \u5e74\u516c\u50b5 5.29% \u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e00\u6a23\uff085.16\uff0d5.29\uff1d\u22120.13 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u6bd4\u6cd5\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5c0d\u516c\u50b5\u6c92\u6709\u591a\u7d66\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5247\u90fd\u5728 3 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/erp-ey-markets.png\" alt=\"\u4e94\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u843d\u5f8c\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u3001\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207\u4ee5\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u524d\u77bb\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u63db\u7b97\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9577\u689d\u5716\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5716 1\u3000\u843d\u5f8c\u3001\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u524d\u77bb\u5747\u503c\uff082026\/09\/30\uff09\uff1b\u6b77\u53f2\u5747\u503c\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u70ba 20 \u5e74\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u8207\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834\uff08\u4ee5 ACWI \u4ee3\u66ff\uff09\u70ba 15 \u5e74\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aMSCI<sup>[3]<\/sup>\u3001J.P. Morgan Asset Management\u300aGuide to the Markets\u300b<sup>[7]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 1 \u8981\u770b\u6df1\u85cd\u548c\u6a58\u8272\u5169\u6839\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u77bb\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6bd4 20 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u4f4e\u4e86 0.9 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff086.06\uff0d5.16\uff09\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4f4e 1.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u800c\u6bd4\u5e73\u5747\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u904e\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6578\u5b57\u8981\u6253\u500b\u6298\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u843d\u5f8c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u662f 29.51 \u500d\u300114.90 \u500d\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u53ea\u5269 18.65 \u500d\u30019.72 \u500d\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577 58% \u8207 53%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea AI \u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u8207\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5927\u6bb5\uff0c\u662f\u62bc\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u6210\u9577\u6703\u514c\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8b80\u5230\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u770b<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=14694\">\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7bc4\u4f8b\uff1a10\u842c\u5230100\u842cETF\u600e\u9ebc\u914d\uff1f5\u7a2e\u80a1\u50b5\u5c0d\u7167\u8868<\/a>\uff0c\u88e1\u9762\u6709\u5404\u7a2e\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5dee\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u5c0d\u7167\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u628a ROE \u653e\u9032\u4f86\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/erp-roe-pb.png\" alt=\"\u5404\u5e02\u5834 ROE \u5c0d\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u6563\u4f48\u5716\uff0c\u9644\u8981\u6c42\u5831\u916c 7%\u30018%\u30019% \u7684\u5408\u7406\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u66f2\u7dda\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5716 2\u3000ROE \u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff082026\/09\/30\uff09\uff1b\u66f2\u7dda\u4ee5\u9577\u671f\u540d\u76ee\u6210\u9577 4% \u7e6a\u88fd\uff0c\u9ede\u5728\u66f2\u7dda\u4e0a\u65b9\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u63a5\u53d7\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff1b\u7a7a\u5fc3\u9ede\u70ba\u53f0\u7063\u8b49\u4ea4\u6240\u5168\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5e02\u8207\u6771\u8b49 Prime \u5e02\u5834\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aMSCI<sup>[3]<\/sup>\u3001\u81fa\u7063\u8b49\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240<sup>[8]<\/sup>\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u96c6\u5718<sup>[9]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 2 \u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u63a5\u8fd1 6 \u500d\u3001\u65e5\u672c 2 \u500d\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u5dee\u4e86\u4e09\u500d\uff0c\u653e\u9032 ROE \u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e09\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u90fd\u843d\u5728\u8981\u6c42\u5831\u916c 7% \u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5dee\u8ddd\u5c0f\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u5728 9% \u90a3\u689d\u7dda\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u4e94\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u96b1\u542b\u5831\u916c\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8981\u56de\u5230 1961 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5e73\u5747 4.25% \u7684\u6ea2\u916c\uff0c\u5728 ROE \u7dad\u6301 22% \u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u9918\u8981\u6c38\u7e8c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6210\u9577 6.8%\uff08\u540d\u76ee\uff09\uff0cROE \u5982\u679c\u56de\u5230\u904e\u53bb 20 \u5e74\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578 14% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u6ea2\u916c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6b78\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6 Michael Smolyansky 2023 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u300aEnd of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c1989 \u5230 2019 \u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u5be6\u8cea\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577\u6709\u56db\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u5229\u606f\u8cbb\u7528\u8207\u7a05\u7387\u4e0b\u964d<sup>[10]<\/sup>\uff0c\u9019\u80a1\u9806\u98a8\u5f88\u96e3\u518d\u4f86\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alpha-cta alpha-cta-mid alpha-cta-news has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"border-left-color:#006ece;border-left-width:4px;background-color:#f3f7fb;padding:16px 20px\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u5316\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6574\u7406\u5728\u300a\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u300b\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-7b4500cd wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?page_id=18852#sib-form\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#006ece;border:2px solid #006ece;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u8a02\u95b1\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8ddf\u6b77\u53f2\u6bd4\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7b97\u8cb4\u55ce\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/erp-us-history.png\" alt=\"1961 \u5e74\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u96b1\u542b\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u8207 10 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5716 3\u3000\u7f8e\u570b\u96b1\u542b\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u8207 10 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff081961\uff5e2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u503c\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u70ba 10 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u6708\u503c\uff09\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aDamodaran<sup>[1]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u770b\u4f60\u62ff\u54ea\u4e00\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\u7576\u5c3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 3 \u986f\u793a\uff0c3.70% \u662f 2008 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46 1961 \u5230 2025 \u5e74\u7684 65 \u500b\u5e74\u5e95\u503c\u88e1\uff0c\u6709 26 \u5e74\u6bd4\u73fe\u5728\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u5927\u7d04\u843d\u5728\u7b2c 40 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff0c1960 \u5e74\u4ee3\u548c 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5f8c\u534a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u90fd\u6bd4\u73fe\u5728\u4f4e\uff0c1999 \u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u9802\u9ede\u53ea\u6709 2.05%\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53ea\u62ff\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u9019\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u7576\u57fa\u6e96\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u986f\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u62ff 60 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4f30\u503c\u6578\u5b57\u5f88\u654f\u611f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6307\u6578\u7d44\u6210\u8b8a\u4e86\uff0cMSCI \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6578\u88e1\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6b0a\u91cd\u5728 2020 \u5e74\u5e95\u63a5\u8fd1 40%\uff0c2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u964d\u5230\u7d04 20%\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u5347\u5230\u7d04 26%\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u4e00\u6a94\u5c31\u5360\u7d04 15%<sup>[11]<\/sup>\uff0c\u53f0\u80a1\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7d04\u5360\u5e02\u503c\u56db\u6210\uff0c\u8ddf 15 \u5e74\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u9ad8 ROE \u7522\u696d\u7684\u6b0a\u91cd\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5408\u7406\u4f30\u503c\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u5f80\u4e0a\u79fb\uff0c\u62ff\u820a\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5747\u503c\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\uff0c\u6703\u628a\u7d50\u69cb\u6539\u8b8a\u8aa4\u5224\u6210\u300c\u8b8a\u8cb4\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53f0\u80a1\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u8207\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u600e\u9ebc\u8655\u7406\uff0c\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=16755\">\u53f0\u80a1\u63a5\u8fd1 5 \u842c\u9ede\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u8d85\u51fa\u76ee\u6a19\u6bd4\u91cd\u6642\u600e\u9ebc\u518d\u5e73\u8861<\/a>\u6574\u7406\u904e\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u662f ROE \u672c\u8eab\u5728\u8b8a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6700\u660e\u986f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/erp-japan-roe.png\" alt=\"2020 \u5e74\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u6771\u8b49\u52a0\u6b0a ROE \u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5716 4\u3000\u6771\u8b49\u52a0\u6b0a ROE \u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\uff082020\/03\uff5e2026\/09\uff0c2022 \u5e74\u8d77\u7531\u6771\u8b49\u4e00\u90e8\u6539\u70ba Prime \u5e02\u5834\uff09\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u65e5\u672c\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u96c6\u5718<sup>[9]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 4 \u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6771\u4eac\u8b49\u4ea4\u6240 2023 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u8981\u6c42\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u63ed\u9732\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u672c\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u5c0d\u7b56\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u52a0\u6b0a ROE \u5f9e 2021 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684 5.5% \u5347\u5230 2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u7684 8.65%\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4\u5f9e 1 \u500d\u9644\u8fd1\u5347\u5230 1.8 \u500d\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5747\u503c\u662f\u5728 ROE \u9577\u671f\u4f4e\u65bc\u8cc7\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u7528\u820a\u5747\u503c\u63a8\u8ad6\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u4fbf\u5b9c\u300d\uff0c\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u6539\u9769\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6709\u5341\u4e00\u7a2e\u7b54\u6848\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/erp-us-methods.png\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u5341\u4e00\u7a2e\u4f30\u6cd5\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u9577\u689d\u5716\uff0c\u5f9e\u8ca0 1.35% \u5230 5.5%\"\/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5716 5\u3000\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u7684\u5341\u4e00\u7a2e\u4f30\u6cd5\uff082026 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff09\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aMSCI<sup>[3]<\/sup>\u3001FRED<sup>[4]<\/sup>\u3001Shiller<sup>[12]<\/sup>\u3001Damodaran<sup>[1]<\/sup>\u3001Dimson, Marsh &amp; Staunton<sup>[13]<\/sup>\u3001Kroll<sup>[14]<\/sup>\u3001Fernandez et al.<sup>[15]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5716 5 \u5f9e \u22121.35% \u5230 5.5%\uff0c\u5dee\u4e86\u5c07\u8fd1 7 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u8aaa\u5be6\u5728\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u628a\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u756b\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6642\u5019\u6211\u4e5f\u5687\u4e86\u4e00\u8df3\uff0c\u62c6\u958b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5dee\u7570\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u500b\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u5206\u5b50\u7528\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u843d\u5f8c\u3001\u524d\u77bb\u3001CAPE \u4e09\u8005\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u5dee\u4e86 2.7 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u4f30 2026 \u5e74\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577 32.8%<sup>[16]<\/sup>\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u9918\u53c8\u88ab\u65e9\u5e74\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u7372\u5229\u62c9\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u662f\u5206\u6bcd\u7528\u540d\u76ee\u9084\u662f\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff0c10 \u5e74\u516c\u50b5\u540d\u76ee 5.29%\u3001\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u516c\u50b5\uff08TIPS\uff09\u5be6\u8cea 2.93%\uff0c\u5149\u9019\u4e00\u9805\u5c31\u5dee 2.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u662f\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u628a\u6210\u9577\u548c\u80a1\u6771\u56de\u994b\u653e\u9032\u53bb\uff0cDamodaran \u628a\u80a1\u5229\u3001\u5eab\u85cf\u80a1\u548c\u672a\u4f86\u6210\u9577\u90fd\u653e\u9032\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6bd4\u55ae\u7d14\u76f8\u6e1b\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u56db\u500b\u662f\u4e8b\u524d\u9084\u662f\u4e8b\u5f8c\uff0c1900 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u5be6\u969b\u6bd4\u516c\u50b5\u591a\u8cfa\u7d04 4.9%\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e Eugene Fama \u8207 Kenneth French 2002 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u300aThe Equity Premium\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4f86\u81ea\u4f30\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u610f\u5916\u6536\u7a6b<sup>[17]<\/sup>\uff0c\u62ff\u5b83\u7576\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u6ea2\u916c\u6703\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AQR \u5171\u540c\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba Cliff Asness 2003 \u5e74\u5728\u300aFight the Fed Model\u300b\u5c31\u63d0\u9192\u904e\uff0c\u76c8\u9918\u6703\u8ddf\u8457\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u662f\u5be6\u8cea\u7684\uff0c\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u542b\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u662f\u540d\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u6e1b\u6709\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e7b\u89ba\u300d<sup>[18]<\/sup>\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f03\u56b4\u8b39\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u6216\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u689d\uff0c\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e00\u7a2e\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u770b\u5b83\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u62ff\u4e0d\u540c\u6a5f\u69cb\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u53e3\u5f91\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u4e92\u76f8\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9019\u4e00\u6ce2\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5347\u5230 5% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u8457\u770b<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=16726\">\u5347\u606f\u5f8c\u7f8e\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u885d\u4e0a5.31%\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u6703\u600e\u6a23\uff1f<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u600e\u9ebc\u8aaa\uff1a\u9577\u671f\u6e96\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u4e0d\u6e96<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f30\u503c\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u5f88\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u6709\u7528\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">John Campbell \u8207 Robert Shiller 1998 \u5e74\u7684\u300aValuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook\u300b\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\u4e3b\u8981\u53cd\u6620\u672a\u4f86\u5831\u916c\uff0cCAPE \u5c0d\u672a\u4f86 10 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5831\u916c\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u529b\u5927\u7d04\u4e09\u5230\u56db\u6210<sup>[19]<\/sup>\uff0cStarCapital \u7684 Norbert Keimling 2016 \u5e74\u7528 17 \u500b\u5e02\u5834\u30011871 \u5230 2015 \u5e74\u8cc7\u6599\u505a\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u4e8b\uff0cCAPE \u6700\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5f8c\u7e8c 10 \u5230 15 \u5e74\u5be6\u8cea\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u7d04 13.3%<sup>[20]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u77ed\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0cAmit Goyal \u8207 Ivo Welch 2008 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u80a1\u5229\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u3001\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9019\u985e\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5728\u6a23\u672c\u5916\u591a\u6578\u6253\u4e0d\u8d0f\u300c\u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u300d<sup>[21]<\/sup>\uff0cAQR \u7684 Asness\u3001Antti Ilmanen \u8207 Thomas Maloney 2017 \u5e74\u7684\u300aMarket Timing: Sin a Little\u300b\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\u4f30\u503c\u64c7\u6642\u53ea\u80fd\u300c\u5c11\u91cf\u5730\u72af\u7f6a\u300d\uff08sin a little\uff09\uff0c\u8981\u642d\u914d\u52d5\u80fd\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u90e8\u4f4d\u8981\u5c0f<sup>[22]<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\u548c\u5b83\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9577\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=1813\">\u5e2d\u52d2\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 CAPE Ratio \u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u4f30\u503c\u9ad8\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u8a72\u8ce3\u80a1<\/a>\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u600e\u9ebc\u7528\u5728\u914d\u7f6e\u4e0a\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u6a5f\u69cb\uff08\u57fa\u6e96\u65e5\uff09<\/th>\n<th>\u671f\u9593\u3001\u53e3\u5f91<\/th>\n<th>\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u578b\u80a1<\/th>\n<th>\u65e5\u672c\u6216\u975e\u7f8e\u5df2\u958b\u767c<\/th>\n<th>\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834<\/th>\n<th>\u4f30\u503c\u600e\u9ebc\u653e\u9032\u6a21\u578b<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>J.P. Morgan\uff082026\/09\/30\uff09<\/td>\n<td>10\uff5e15 \u5e74\uff0c\u540d\u76ee<\/td>\n<td>7.5%<\/td>\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\n<td>7.1%<\/td>\n<td>\u4ee5\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u70ba\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0a\u8abf<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Vanguard\uff082026\/06\/30\uff09<\/td>\n<td>10 \u5e74\uff0c\u540d\u76ee<\/td>\n<td>4.2%\uff5e6.2%<\/td>\n<td>\u975e\u7f8e\u5df2\u958b\u767c 4.5%\uff5e6.5%<\/td>\n<td>2%\uff5e4%<\/td>\n<td>\u4f9d\u5229\u7387\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u8abf\u6574\u5408\u7406\u4f30\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>AQR\uff082025\/12\/31\uff09<\/td>\n<td>5\uff5e10 \u5e74\uff0c\u7576\u5730\u5be6\u8cea<\/td>\n<td>3.9%<\/td>\n<td>\u65e5\u672c 4.9%<\/td>\n<td>5.1%<\/td>\n<td>\u4e0d\u5047\u8a2d\u4f30\u503c\u56de\u6b78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>GMO\uff082026\/08\/31\uff09<\/td>\n<td>7 \u5e74\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea<\/td>\n<td>\u22127.4%<\/td>\n<td>\u65e5\u672c\u5c0f\u578b\u50f9\u503c 4.7%<\/td>\n<td>\u22120.1%<\/td>\n<td>\u4f30\u503c\u8207\u5229\u6f64\u7387 7 \u5e74\u5167\u56de\u5230\u9577\u671f\u5747\u503c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u540d\u76ee\u8207\u5be6\u8cea\u3001\u5e63\u5225\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u6bd4\uff1b\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aJ.P. Morgan Asset Management\u300a2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions\u300b<sup>[23]<\/sup>\u3001Vanguard<sup>[24]<\/sup>\u3001AQR<sup>[25]<\/sup>\u3001GMO<sup>[26]<\/sup>\uff1b\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6295\u8cc7\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6574\u7406<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u578b\u80a1\uff0cJ.P. Morgan \u7d66 7.5%\uff0cGMO \u7d66 \u22127.4%\uff0c\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d85\u904e 12 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u5206\u6b67\u5c31\u5728\u9ad8 ROE \u548c\u9ad8\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5247\u662f\u591a\u6578\u6a5f\u69cb\u76f8\u5c0d\u770b\u597d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u653e\u9032\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5404\u5bb6\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6230\u7565\u914d\u7f6e\uff08SAA\uff09\u7528\u4f30\u503c\u4f86\u8abf\u6574\u5404\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u6ea2\u916c\u7a84\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8abf\u4f4e\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u6b78\u96f6\uff0c\u6b0a\u91cd\u4ecd\u4ee5\u5e02\u503c\u70ba\u9328\uff0c\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5230\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u6230\u8853\u914d\u7f6e\uff08TAA\uff09\u5247\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u770b\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4f30\u503c\u5c0d\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u7684\u5831\u916c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u529b\uff0c\u8981\u7b49\u50f9\u683c\u52d5\u80fd\u548c\u76c8\u9918\u9810\u4f30\u4fee\u6b63\u65b9\u5411\u4e00\u81f4\u624d\u52d5\uff0c\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e5f\u8981\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7528\u4e4b\u524d\u9084\u8981\u505a\u4e00\u9ede\u8abf\u6574\uff0cROE \u8981\u7528\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u8207\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8981\u8003\u616e\u7522\u696d\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8981\u7528\u6539\u9769\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7528\u8655\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u300c\u80a1\u5e02\u8cb4\u4e0d\u8cb4\u300d\u9019\u7a2e\u5435\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u96b1\u542b\u591a\u5c11\u6210\u9577\u300d\u9019\u7a2e\u53ef\u4ee5\u6aa2\u67e5\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u7b49\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d 22% \u7684 ROE \u53ef\u4ee5\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\uff0c\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u6ea2\u916c\u7a84\u5c31\u53eb\u4eba\u8ce3\u6389\u7f8e\u80a1\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7d93\u8b1b\u5f97\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u5c0d\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e5f\u5360\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\u516d\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a<sup>[13]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f4e\u914d\u592a\u591a\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7528\u98db\u884c\u4f86\u6bd4\u55bb\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6bd4\u8f03\u50cf\u822a\u7dda\u4e0a\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5b83\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4f60\u8981\u5e36\u591a\u5c11\u5099\u7528\u6cb9\u3001\u822a\u7dda\u8981\u7559\u591a\u5c11\u9918\u88d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4eca\u5929\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u8d77\u98db\uff0c\u5c0d\u61c9\u5230\u914d\u7f6e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8b93\u6ea2\u916c\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\u5831\u916c\u548c\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9650\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u6f32\u8dcc\u4ea4\u7d66\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u8655\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u525b\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6ea2\u916c\u5bec\uff0cROE \u9084\u5728\u5f80\u4e0a\u8d70\uff0c\u662f\u5c11\u6578\u4f30\u503c\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u65b9\u5411\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u5247\u8981\u591a\u770b\u4e00\u500b\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u660e\u5e74\u4e94\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u6210\u9577\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u514c\u73fe\uff08\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u8981\u5206\u6563\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u60f3\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=14764\">\u80a1\u50b5\u914d\u7f6e\u7d42\u6975\u6307\u5357\uff1a\u5f9e\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5230ETF\u63a8\u85a6\u4e00\u6b21\u641e\u61c2\uff01<\/a>\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7d04\u7ff0\uff0e\u67cf\u683c\uff08John C. Bogle\uff09\u8aaa\u904e\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff0c\u653e\u5728\u4f30\u503c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7279\u5225\u8cbc\u5207\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u300c\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5e72\u64fe\u3002\u300d\n&#8220;The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.&#8221;\uff08John C. Bogle\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alpha-cta alpha-cta-end alpha-cta-news has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"background-color:#f3f7fb;padding:32px 20px\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(16.834px, 1.052rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.716), 26px);font-weight:700\">\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u6bcf\u5929\u8ffd<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u8a02\u95b1\u300a\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u300b\u96fb\u5b50\u5831\uff0c\u6536\u5230\u5c08\u5bb6\u89c0\u9ede\u8207\u6d3b\u52d5\u63d0\u9192<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe0a7de2 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?page_id=18852#sib-form\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#006ece;border:2px solid #006ece;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>\u8a02\u95b1\u963f\u723e\u767c\u89c0\u9ede\u96fb\u5b50\u5831<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/urli.ai\/line\/XpZpxkKi\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#00b900;background-color:#ffffff;border:2px solid #00b900;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.234), 17px);line-height:1.4;padding:10px 26px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u52a0 LINE \u554f\u9867\u554f<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/h2>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u80a1\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u916c\u591a\u5c11\u624d\u7b97\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u570b 1961 \u5230 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ea2\u916c\u5e73\u5747\u7d04 4.25%<sup>[1]<\/sup>\uff0cCFA Institute \u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u91d1\u6703 2001\u30012011\u30012021 \u5e74\u4e09\u6b21\u9080\u96c6\u5b78\u8005\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u6ea2\u916c\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u90fd\u843d\u5728 4% \u5de6\u53f3<sup>[27]<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 3% \u4ee3\u8868\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5c0d\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u88dc\u511f\u504f\u5c11\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc 6% \u591a\u51fa\u73fe\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u8207 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u524d\u5f8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u76c8\u9918\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6bd4\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4f4e\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u80a1\u7968\u8a72\u8ce3\u55ce\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n<p 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(2026). <em>Implied equity risk premiums: Historical and monthly data<\/em> [Data set]. NYU Stern School of Business. https:\/\/pages.stern.nyu.edu\/~adamodar\/New_Home_Page\/home.htm<\/li>\n<li>[2] CFA Institute. (2026). <em>CFA program curriculum level III: Capital market expectations, part 2: Forecasting asset class returns<\/em>. CFA Institute.<\/li>\n<li>[3] MSCI. (2026). <em>MSCI USA, Japan, Taiwan, World and Emerging Markets index factsheets<\/em> (data as of September 30, 2026). https:\/\/www.msci.com\/indexes<\/li>\n<li>[4] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2026). <em>10-year Treasury constant maturity rate (DGS10) and 10-year TIPS (DFII10)<\/em> [Data set]. FRED. https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/DGS10<\/li>\n<li>[5] \u65e5\u672c\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\uff082026\uff09\u3002<em>\u570b\u50b5\u91d1\u5229\u60c5\u5831<\/em>\u3002https:\/\/www.mof.go.jp\/english\/policy\/jgbs\/reference\/interest_rate\/<\/li>\n<li>[6] Trading Economics. (2026). <em>Taiwan 10-year government bond yield<\/em>. https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/taiwan\/government-bond-yield<\/li>\n<li>[7] J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2026). <em>Guide to the markets: U.S. and Asia, 4Q 2026<\/em> (data as of September 30, 2026). https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/content\/dam\/jpm-am-aem\/global\/en\/insights\/market-insights\/guide-to-the-markets\/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf<\/li>\n<li>[8] \u81fa\u7063\u8b49\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff082026\uff09\u3002<em>\u8b49\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6708\u5831\uff1a2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u3001\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u53ca\u80a1\u50f9\u6de8\u503c\u6bd4<\/em>\u3002https:\/\/www.twse.com.tw\/<\/li>\n<li>[9] Japan Exchange Group. (2026). <em>Average PER and PBR (September 2026)<\/em>. https:\/\/www.jpx.co.jp\/english\/markets\/statistics-equities\/misc\/04.html<\/li>\n<li>[10] Smolyansky, M. (2023). <em>End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns<\/em> (FEDS 2023-041). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econres\/feds\/files\/2023041pap.pdf<\/li>\n<li>[11] MSCI. (2026). <em>Taiwan at the top: MSCI EM country weight breakdown<\/em>. https:\/\/www.msci.com\/indexes\/markets-in-motion\/visualizations\/taiwan-at-the-top-msci-em-country-weight-breakdown<\/li>\n<li>[12] Shiller, R. J. (2026). <em>U.S. stock markets 1871\u2013present and CAPE ratio<\/em> [Data set]. https:\/\/shillerdata.com\/<\/li>\n<li>[13] Dimson, E., Marsh, P., &amp; Staunton, M. (2026). <em>UBS global investment returns yearbook 2026: Summary edition<\/em>. UBS. https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/media\/display-page-ndp\/en-20260303-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2026.html<\/li>\n<li>[14] Kroll. (2026). <em>Cost of capital updates: January 2026 executive summary<\/em>. Kroll. https:\/\/www.kroll.com\/en\/reports\/cost-of-capital<\/li>\n<li>[15] Fernandez, P., et al. (2025). <em>Survey: Market risk premium and risk-free rate used for 2025<\/em>. IESE Business School. https:\/\/breesept.tulane.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2026\/03\/Rf-and-Rm-Rf-2025.pdf<\/li>\n<li>[16] FactSet. (2026, October 16). <em>Earnings insight<\/em>. https:\/\/advantage.factset.com\/<\/li>\n<li>[17] Fama, E. F., &amp; French, K. R. (2002). The equity premium. <em>The Journal of Finance, 57<\/em>(2), 637\u2013659.<\/li>\n<li>[18] Asness, C. S. (2003). Fight the Fed model. <em>The Journal of Portfolio Management, 30<\/em>(1), 11\u201324.<\/li>\n<li>[19] Campbell, J. Y., &amp; Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. <em>The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24<\/em>(2), 11\u201326.<\/li>\n<li>[20] Keimling, N. (2016). <em>Predicting stock market returns using the Shiller CAPE<\/em>. StarCapital Research.<\/li>\n<li>[21] Goyal, A., &amp; Welch, I. (2008). A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction. <em>The Review of Financial Studies, 21<\/em>(4), 1455\u20131508.<\/li>\n<li>[22] Asness, C., Ilmanen, A., &amp; Maloney, T. (2017). Market timing: Sin a little. <em>Journal of Investment Management, 15<\/em>(3).<\/li>\n<li>[23] J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2026). <em>2027 long-term capital market assumptions<\/em>. https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/institutional\/insights\/portfolio-insights\/ltcma\/<\/li>\n<li>[24] Vanguard. (2026, July 22). <em>Setting realistic expectations<\/em>. https:\/\/corporate.vanguard.com\/content\/corporatesite\/us\/en\/corp\/vemo\/vemo-return-forecasts.html<\/li>\n<li>[25] AQR Capital Management. (2026). <em>2026 capital market assumptions for major asset classes<\/em>. https:\/\/www.aqr.com\/insights\/research\/alternative-thinking\/2026-capital-market-assumptions-for-major-asset-classes<\/li>\n<li>[26] GMO. 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