{"id":227,"date":"2017-06-09T16:36:00","date_gmt":"2017-06-09T08:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=227"},"modified":"2026-06-09T16:20:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T08:20:53","slug":"%e6%96%b0%e8%88%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4-%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%89%8d%e5%89%9b%e9%96%8b%e5%a7%8b%e8%80%8c%e5%b7%b2%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=227","title":{"rendered":"\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u53ef\u80fd\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u800c\u5df2\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u300c\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u6703\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u65bc\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u72af\u932f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u300d\u2500\u2500&nbsp;\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff0c Fooled by &nbsp;Randomness\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MSCI \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6578\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c2017 \u5e74\u81f3 5 \u6708\u5e95\u70ba\u6b62\u6307\u6578\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86 17.3\uff05\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86 27.4\uff05\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u5e74\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u8fd1\u4e09\u6210\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\u843d\u5f8c\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u80a1\u5e02\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u73fe\u5728 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u8655\u65bc\u4f4e\u6a94\u5340\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u624d\u6b63\u5f0f\u958b\u59cb\u8981\u8f2a\u5230 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"784\" height=\"1109\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzz.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzz.png 784w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzz-212x300.png 212w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzz-724x1024.png 724w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzz-768x1086.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u6b77\u5e74\u6f32\u8dcc\u5e45\u72c0\u6cc1<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u5238\u5546\u5609\u4fe1\u7406\u8ca1\u516c\u53f8\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/www.schwab.com\/public\/schwab\/nn\/articles\/The-Long-Period-of-Underperformance-for-Emerging-Market-Stocks-May-Finally-Be-Over\">Charles Schwab<\/a>\uff09\u7d71\u8a08\u4e86\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u8207\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5f9e 1988 \u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u9577\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u6f32\u5e45\u6703\u9818\u5148\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u5927\u7d04\u662f 8 \u5e74\uff1b\u4e4b\u5f8c\u53c8\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u9577\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u6f32\u5e45\u6703\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u4e5f\u5927\u7d04\u662f8\u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u5171 16 \u5e74\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5f9e \uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff09\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u9019\u6ce2\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\uff08\u6a58\u8272\u7dda\uff09\u662f\u5f9e 2004 \u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5df2\u7d93\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e86\u9019\u6ce2\u4e0b\u964d\u6ce2\u6bb5\u7684\u5c3e\u8072\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u958b\u59cb\u8981\u8f2a\u5230 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1425\" height=\"1037\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzzz.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzzz.png 1425w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzzz-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzzz-1024x745.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/zzzz-768x559.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1425px) 100vw, 1425px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff09\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u6b77\u5e74\u6f32\u8dcc\u5e45\u72c0\u6cc1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u8ad6\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u898f\u5f8b\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5f9e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6163\u6709\u7684\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/james1966.blogspot.tw\/2016\/12\/blog-post_3.html\">regression toward the mean<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u7279\u6027\u4e5f\u80fd\u5920\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u67d0\u500b\u5340\u57df\u6216\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6c38\u9060\u90fd\u6bd4\u5225\u4eba\u8868\u73fe\u597d\u6216\u5dee\u3002\u6f32\u591a\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u8dcc\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u8dcc\u591a\u7684\u4e5f\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u6f32\u4e0a\u53bb\uff0c \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\u4e4f\u5584\u53ef\u9673\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u5927\u65bc\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u5f71\u97ff \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/mark><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u96c6\u5408\u7684\u540d\u8a5e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u8207\u5730\u7406\u7bc4\u570d\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u5ee3\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u55ae\u4e00\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u7576\u7136\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5238\u5546\u5609\u4fe1\u7406\u8ca1\u516c\u53f8\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u5f71\u97ff \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u570b\u5bb6\u80a1\u5e02\u7684 4 \u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. \u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. \u570b\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. \u8a72\u570b\u5bb6\u532f\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. \u5168\u7403\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u500b \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u90fd\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u9ede\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u53f0\u7063\u80a1\u5e02\u4e3b\u8981\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u8f03\u5927\u3002\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u6216\u8a31\u958b\u59cb\u6703\u8fce\u4f86\u5e7e\u5e74\u8868\u73fe\u4eae\u9e97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u4f46\u5f9e\u4e0a\u5716\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u55ae\u4e00\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u5dee\u7570\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7a81\u7136\u7522\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u5982\uff1a\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u5df4\u897f\u80a1\u5e02\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u6211\u5011\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3008<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=215\">\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u662f\u6709\u539f\u56e0\u7684<\/a>\u3009\u4e2d\u6709\u63d0\u904e\u00a0\uff0c\u8981<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u6295\u8cc7 \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u6295\u8cc7\u6574\u500b \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 \u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u8981\u5192\u96aa\u53bb\u6295\u8cc7\u55ae\u4e00\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u96aa\uff01<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>#\u95b1\u8b80\u6642\u9593\u7d04\u70ba4\u5206\u9418<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-text-color has-background is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#000000;background-color:#ffffff\">\n<style>\n\/* --- \u9810\u8a2d\uff1a\u624b\u6a5f\u7248\u5c3a\u5bf8 (\u5c0f\u87a2\u5e55) --- *\/\n.rwd-heading {\n    font-size: 32px !important;\n    margin-bottom: 24px !important;\n}\n.rwd-btn-wrapper {\n    \/* \u624b\u6a5f\u7248\u6a19\u984c\uff1a32px * 10\u5b57 = 320px *\/\n    width: 320px !important;\n    max-width: 100% !important;\n}\n.rwd-btn-link {\n    font-size: 16px !important;\n    padding: 12px 16px !important;\n}\n\n\/* --- 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has-text-color has-background\" style=\"color:#000000;background-color:#ffffff;text-align:center;padding:40px 20px;\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center rwd-heading\" id=\"schedule-a-visit-personal\" style=\"line-height:1.15;font-weight:700;\">\u7acb\u5373\u555f\u52d5\u500b\u4eba\u8ca1\u5bcc\u8a08\u756b<\/h2>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\" style=\"display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:center;gap:20px;\">\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-button rwd-btn-wrapper\">\n        <a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button rwd-btn-link\" href=\"https:\/\/urli.ai\/line\/jOAm2Tj0\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#006ece;text-align:center;display:block;box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:700;\">\u514d\u8cbb\u8a3b\u518a\u963f\u723e\u767c\u6703\u54e1<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"wp-block-button rwd-btn-wrapper\">\n        <a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button rwd-btn-link\" href=\"https:\/\/urli.ai\/line\/XpZpxkKi\" style=\"border-radius:50px;color:#ffffff;background-color:#00b900;text-align:center;display:block;box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:700;\">\u7acb\u5373\u52a0\u5165\u963f\u723e\u767c\u5b98\u65b9Line@<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u6703\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u65bc\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u72af\u932f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u300d\u2500\u2500&nbsp;\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\uff08Nassim Taleb [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[144,238,262,282,384],"class_list":["post-227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-10","tag-144","tag-238","tag-262","tag-282","tag-384"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=227"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16352,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227\/revisions\/16352"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}