{"id":319,"date":"2017-06-21T16:06:00","date_gmt":"2017-06-21T08:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=319"},"modified":"2026-06-05T11:24:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T03:24:54","slug":"%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9-%e5%b0%8d%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e7%9c%8b%e6%b3%95%ef%bc%9a%e6%82%b2%e8%a7%80%ef%bc%9f%e6%a8%82%e8%a7%80%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=319","title":{"rendered":"\u5df4\u83f2\u7279 \u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u60b2\u89c0\uff1f\u6a02\u89c0\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u300c\u6211\u5f9e\u4f86\u90fd\u641e\u4e0d\u61c2\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u6709\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\u8b93\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u559c\u6b61\u807d\u5230\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u5373\u5c07\u8d70\u5411\u6ec5\u4ea1\u300d  \u2500\u2500&nbsp;\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6 \u6234\u723e\u5fb7\u9e97\uff0e\u9ea5\u514b\u6d1b\u65af\u57fa\uff08Deirdre McCloskey\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u5373\u5c07\u5927\u8dcc\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u570b 1987 \u5e74 \u80a1\u5e02 \u5927\u8dcc\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\uff08\u9ec3\u8272\uff09\u8207\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u7684 \u80a1\u5e02 \u8d70\u52e2\uff08\u85cd\u8272\uff09\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u50cf? \u6240\u4ee5\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8aaa\u660e\u90fd\u4e0d\u7528\u8b1b\u4f60\u5c31\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u60f3\u8981\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u4ec0\u9ebc \u2500\u2500 \u80a1\u5e02 \u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6703\u5927\u8dcc\uff01\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5716\u8868\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u60f3\u8981\u5c07\u6295\u8cc7\u90fd\u8ce3\u6389\u5462\uff1f\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u9ebc\u505a\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5fc3\u88e1\u4e5f\u6703\u6709\u9ede\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5982\u679c \u80a1\u5e02 \u771f\u7684\u5927\u8dcc\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u611f\u5230\u5f8c\u6094\uff0c\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u5df2\u7d93\u8b66\u544a\u4f60\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u5c0d\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1358\" height=\"933\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-2.png 1358w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-2-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-2-1024x704.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-2-768x528.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1358px) 100vw, 1358px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff091987\u5e74\u82072017\u5e74\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u4e4b\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u5716<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u518d\u770b\u770b\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\uff08\u5716\u4e8c\uff09\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u8ddf\uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u662f 1987 \u5e74\u8207\u73fe\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u5716\uff0c\u4f46\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u5c31\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5169\u8005\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u76f8\u4f3c\u5462\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\uff08\u5716\u4e8c\uff09\u7684\u7e31\u8ef8\uff08Y\u8ef8\uff09\u986f\u793a\u7684\u662f\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff1b\u800c\uff08\u5716\u4e00\uff09\u986f\u793a\u7684\u662f\u6307\u6578\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u7528<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff0000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/mark><\/strong>\u53bb\u6bd4\u8f03\u624d\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5f9e\u9019\u5169\u5f35\u5716\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5716\u5f62\u662f\u591a\u9ebc\u5bb9\u6613\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u591a<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-2-color\"><strong>\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u6163\u7528\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\uff1a\u5148\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u518d\u627e\u51fa\u652f\u6301\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\u7684\u5716\u8868\u4f86\u300c\u8b49\u660e\u300d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/strong>\u3002<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1383\" height=\"875\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3.png 1383w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-1024x648.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-3-768x486.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1383px) 100vw, 1383px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\uff08\u5716\u4e8c\uff091987\u5e74\u82072017\u5e74\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u4e4b\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u5716\uff08\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff09<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c62\u898b\u4e0d\u9bae\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a2013&nbsp; \u5e74\u30012014 \u5e74\u4ee5\u53ca 2016 \u5e74\u6642\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1516\" height=\"973\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-4.png 1516w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-4-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-4-1024x657.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/3-4-768x493.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1516px) 100vw, 1516px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4e00\u9ede\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u7684\u5716\u8868\u660e\u660e\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7279\u5225\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f88\u591a\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u5f88\u559c\u6b61\u7528\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u9810\u6e2c\u80a1\u5e02\u5373\u5c07\u5927\u8dcc\u9019\u7a2e\u609a\u52d5\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u5462\uff1f\u6bcf\u9694\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u9019\u985e\u7684\u300c\u8b66\u544a\u300d\u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u8070\u660e\u7684\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff1f\uff01<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u77e5\u540d\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u6b04\u4f5c\u5bb6&nbsp;\u6469\u6839\uff0e\u8c6a\u65af\uff08<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-palette-color-4-color\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.collaborativefund.com\/blog\/\">Morgan Housel<\/a>&nbsp;<\/mark>\uff09\u5728\u3008<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/general\/2016\/01\/21\/why-does-pessimism-sound-so-smart.aspx\">\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u611f\u89ba\u597d\u50cf\u5f88\u8070\u660e<\/a>\u3009\u4e2d\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u5373\u4f7f\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u660e\u660e\u662f\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u904e\u7684\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u7e3d\u662f\u6bd4\u6a02\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u66f4\u53d7\u5230\u6b61\u8fce\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u611f\u89ba\u66f4\u52a0\u7684\u6709\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u800c\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u4eba\u537b\u7d93\u5e38\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u662f\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u770b\u597d\u80a1\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u53ea\u662f\u50cf\u500b\u5566\u5566\u968a\u968a\u9577\uff1b\u800c\u770b\u58de\u80a1\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u7684\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u537b\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u662f\u8b39\u614e\u3001\u8070\u660e\u777f\u667a\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5a92\u9ad4\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6469\u6839\uff0e\u8c6a\u65af \u7e3d\u7d50\u4e86 5 \u9ede\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u8070\u660e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff08\u4f46\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8070\u660e\uff09\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. \u6a02\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u8b93\u4eba\u611f\u89ba\u662f\u627f\u64d4\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u800c\u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u898f\u907f\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u8070\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. \u60b2\u89c0\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u9019\u7a2e\u8aaa\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. \u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u8868\u793a\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u800c\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u8868\u793a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u4e0d\u7528\u505a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4eba\u5011\u559c\u6b61\u6709\u6240\u884c\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. \u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u6709\u6642\u611f\u89ba\u50cf\u662f\u92b7\u552e\u4eba\u54e1\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5473\u7684\u8aaa\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u537b\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u611f\u89ba\u4f60\u662f\u771f\u5fc3\u60f3\u8981\u63d0\u4f9b\u5efa\u8b70\u8207\u5e6b\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5. 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