{"id":407,"date":"2017-08-15T09:52:00","date_gmt":"2017-08-15T01:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=407"},"modified":"2017-08-15T09:52:00","modified_gmt":"2017-08-15T01:52:00","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e6%87%89%e5%b0%8d%e3%80%8c%e5%8c%97%e9%9f%93%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e6%b0%a3%e6%b0%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=407","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u300c\u5317\u97d3\u5c40\u52e2\u300d\u7684\u7dca\u5f35\u6c23\u6c1b?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\u6301\u7e8c\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14\u65bc\u4e0a\u79ae\u62dc\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u7a81\u7834 22,000 \u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u5373\u800c\u4f86\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5ddd\u666e\u7e3d\u7d71\u8207\u5317\u97d3\u9818\u8896\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u4e92\u55c6\u65b0\u805e\u88fd\u9020\u51fa\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7dca\u5f35\u6c23\u6c1b\uff0c\u6b64\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e5f\u8b93\u5404\u500b\u65b0\u805e\u5a92\u9ad4\u8207\u8ca1\u7d93\u8ad6\u58c7\u65bc\u9019\u5e7e\u5929\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u8a31\u591a\u71b1\u9580\u767c\u71d2\u8a71\u984c\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5c08\u5bb6\u63a8\u6e2c\u56e0\u61c9 \u5317\u97d3\u5c40\u52e2 \u767c\u5c55\u5c07\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u4e00\u6709\u6d88\u606f\u6307\u51fa\u5c07\u6709\u4e00\u5834\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\u5fc5\u5c07\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u9663\u9a37\u52d5\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u5728\u6b64\u7d66\u7dca\u5f35\u6216\u8208\u596e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5011\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5efa\u8b70\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u90fd\u4e0d\u8981\u505a\uff01(Do Nothing\uff01)<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8981\u8aaa\u5f9e\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u4e2d\u6559\u6703\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1f\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u6162\u6162\u4e14\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u8d0f\u5f97\u9019\u5834\u6bd4\u8cfd\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u7576\u4e2d<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

\u5176\u5be6\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u4fdd\u7559\u60a8\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u90e8\u4f4d\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u5e38\u770b\u5230\u7684\u773e\u591a\u5a92\u9ad4\u5831\u5c0e\u7d93\u5e38\u717d\u52d5\u6211\u5011\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u7dad\u6301\u4f4f\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u8a72\u4fdd\u6709\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u8207\u5805\u6301\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u6700\u597d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u8cd3\u5dde\u5927\u5b78 (University of Pennsylvania) \u7684\u6559\u6388 Jeremy Siegel \uff0c\u5728\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u699c\u4e0a\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u66a2\u92b7\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9577\u671f\u80a1\u5e02\u300b (Stocks for the Long Run) \u4e2d\u5c31\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u7f8e\u570b 1802 \u5e74\u81f3 1997 \u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u4e14\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u4e5f\u4ee4\u4ed6\u9a5a\u8a1d\u4e26\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5beb\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u611f\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5831\u916c\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e00\u81f4\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u5011\u4f86\u770b\u4ed6\u5982\u4f55\u7e3d\u7d50\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u74b0\u5883\u3001\u793e\u6703\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u8a31\u8a31\u591a\u591a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\u5728\u6263\u9664\u901a\u81a8\u8b8a\u5316\u5f8c\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5831\u916c\u7387\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u90fd\u5728 6.6% \u81f3 7.2% \u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u7531\u4e0a\u5716\u4e2d\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u5831\u916c\u7387\u4e0a\u7684\u8d77\u8d77\u4f0f\u4f0f\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u7121\u6578\u500b\u725b\u5e02 (\u80a1\u5e02\u666f\u6c23\u597d) \u8207\u718a\u5e02 (\u80a1\u5e02\u666f\u6c23\u58de) \u4ea4\u66ff\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u60c5\u6cc1<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u77ed\u671f\u4f86\u770b\u6b64\u52d5\u76ea\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\u975e\u5e38\u5927<\/mark><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e14\u8ddf\u8457\u6b64\u6f32\u8dcc\u60c5\u6cc1\u64cd\u4f5c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e4b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c0d\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u60f3\u9577\u671f\u7d2f\u7a4d\u8ca1\u5bcc\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u7121\u76ca\u7684<\/mark><\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f9d\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\u5c31\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u5c0d\u65bc\u80a1\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ee5\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5448\u73fe\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e4b\u8da8\u52e2\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e14Siegel\u4e5f\u767c\u73fe\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5728\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6642\u671f\u89c0\u5bdf\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u5176\u6263\u9664\u901a\u81a8\u5f8c\u4e4b\u5831\u916c\u7387\u5927\u7d04\u90fd\u7dad\u6301\u5728 7% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u65bc 19 \u4e16\u7d00\u7f8e\u570b\u5357\u5317\u6230\u722d\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u751a\u81f3\u662f 1929 \u5e74\u6642\u7684\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6642\u671f (\u7531\u7b2c\u4e8c\u689d\u9ed1\u8272\u5782\u76f4\u7dda\u6a19\u793a) \u5404\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65bc\u6574\u9ad4\u8da8\u52e2\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u63d2\u66f2\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u4e4b\u4e0b\u80a1\u5e02\u5f80\u4e0a\u8d70\u4e4b\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4e14\u6b64\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u4ea6\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e0a\u6f14\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u5e7e\u8fd1\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u570b\u5bb6-\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u6642 (1939\u5e74~1945\u5e74) \u5fb7\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u6b64\u6642\u671f\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86 90% \uff0c\u4f46\u5728 1948 \u5e74\u81f3 1960 \u5e74\u671f\u9593\u5176\u80a1\u5e02\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86 30% \uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\u80a1\u5e02\u9084\u9054\u5230\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5f9e\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5be6\u969b\u5831\u916c\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u7a69\u5730\u7dad\u6301\u5728 6.6%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siegel \u4e5f\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u65e5\u672c\u53ca\u82f1\u570b\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5f97\u5230\u4e4b\u7d50\u679c\u5747\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u4e4b\u4e0b\u4f86\u770b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u662f\u5f88\u5287\u70c8\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9577\u671f\u4e4b\u4e0b\u89c0\u5bdf\u80a1\u5e02\u4e4b\u5831\u916c\u7387\u662f\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e14\u70ba\u6301\u7e8c\u7372\u5229<\/mark><\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u300a\u9577\u671f\u80a1\u5e02\u300b\u66f8\u4e2d\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u884c Siegel \u4e5f\u518d\u6b21\u63d0\u9192\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5011\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u800c\u8a00\u5f71\u97ff\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5c0d\u65bc\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7a4d\u7d2f\u4e26\u7121\u7528\u8655\u3002<\/mark><\/strong>(The short-term fluctuations in market, which loom so large to investors, have little to do with the long-term accumulation of wealth.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u5468\u906d\u4e2d\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u5c11\u807d\u5230\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u5bb6\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u983b\u7e41\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4f86\u8aaa\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u70ba\u4f55\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u5b83\u5f88\u7121\u804a\u7121\u6cd5\u5e36\u7d66\u4eba\u5011\u7acb\u5373\u7684\u8208\u596e\u6216\u7dca\u5f35\u611f\uff0c\u4e14\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u5b83\u5f88\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff01<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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