{"id":601,"date":"2017-10-19T17:49:00","date_gmt":"2017-10-19T09:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=601"},"modified":"2017-10-19T17:49:00","modified_gmt":"2017-10-19T09:49:00","slug":"%e9%81%93%e7%93%8a%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8-%e8%a1%9d%e4%b8%8a23000%e9%bb%9e%ef%bc%8c%e9%80%99%e6%98%af%e4%bd%a0%e7%8f%be%e5%9c%a8%e6%9c%80%e8%a9%b2%e5%81%9a%e7%9a%84%e4%ba%8b%e6%83%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.roboadvisor.com.tw\/?p=601","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578 \u885d\u4e0a23000\u9ede\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4f60\u73fe\u5728\u6700\u8a72\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02 \u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b \u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578 \u4e00\u8def\u5f80\u4e0a\u885d\u5230\u00a023,000\u00a0<\/mark><\/strong>\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u96bb\u8001\u725b\u7d72\u6beb\u6c92\u6709\u75b2\u618a\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u5bb6\u00a0Charlie Bilello\u00a0\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u4e0a\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u00a0\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578 \u5df2\u7d93\u4e0a\u6f32\u5230\u904e\u53bb\u00a0100\u00a0\u5e74\u4f86\u8d85\u8cb7\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u5340\u57df\u4e86\uff0c\u5f9e\u4efb\u4f55\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u96a8\u6642\u90fd\u6709\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
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<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Shiller\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4<\/mark>\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7528\u9014\u5c31\u662f\u7528 1 \/ Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u672a\u4f86\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387<\/mark>\uff0c\u5f9e\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5f88\u7cbe\u6e96\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u73fe\u5728 Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5927\u7d04\u662f 30 \u4f86\u770b\uff0c1\/30=3.33%\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 5 \u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\u5927\u7d04\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u5e74 3.33%\u00a0<\/mark>(\u6263\u9664\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139)\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57 \u300c\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u300d \u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u904e\u53bb 100 \u591a\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c 6.4%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u5831\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5f6d\u535a\u8cc7\u8a0a\u793e\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3008What if stock value revert to normal levels?<\/strong><\/a>\u3009\u5c31\u63d0\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684 Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5df2\u7d93\u5927\u5e45\u504f\u96e2\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u6709\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u7279\u6027\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u90a3\u9ebc\u53cd\u61c9\u5feb\u901f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u63a8\u5b8c\u5168\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u6703\u7522\u751f\u4e00\u4e9b\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u7528\u4f86\u5206\u6790 Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u6703\u78b0\u5230\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u502b\u6566\u5546\u5b78\u6821 (London Business School) \u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u6559\u6388 Elroy Dimson \u66fe\u8aaa\u904e\uff1a\u300c\u5f88\u591a\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u6709\u9650\u8cc7\u6599\u6240\u7372\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5047\u8c61\u3002\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u904e\u53bb\u5f88\u591a Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u76c8\u9918\u9010\u6f38\u8ffd\u4e0a\u4f86\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u55ae\u7d14\u770b\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6216\u662f Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5df2\u7d93\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u5224\u65b7\u80a1\u5e02\u5f88\u5feb\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u662f\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u554f\u984c\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6b64\u6642\u505a\u51fa\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u653e\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0a\u6f32\u5f88\u591a\u662f\u500b\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4e8b\u5be6\u544a\u8a34\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6700\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u2500\u2500\u672a\u4f86 5 \u5e74\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86<\/mark>\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6f32\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 5 \u5e74\u80fd\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7387\u5c31\u6703\u964d\u8d8a\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u73fe\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u61c9\u8a72\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u73fe\u5728 Shiller \u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5df2\u7d93\u504f\u96e2\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u503c 2 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4f9d\u7136\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u80a1\u5e02\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u61c9\u8a72\u505a\u7684\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u53bb\u653e\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u6e1b\u78bc\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c07\u8cc7\u91d1\u5206\u914d\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u53bb\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7562\u7adf\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u53ef\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u7387\u662f\u4e0d\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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